Gerrit Cole opts out of contract, setting up $36 million Yankees question

What was expected is nonetheless eye-opening: Gerrit Cole has opted out of his contract and placed the ball in the Yankees’ court. 

Cole made the decision Saturday, The Post’s Jon Heyman confirmed, to pull out of a deal that had four years and $144 million remaining.

The Yankees can prevent their ace from hitting the open market by attaching a fifth year, worth $36 million, to the existing deal that would keep Cole in The Bronx through the 2029 season.

They reportedly have until Sunday night to inform agent Scott Boras of their decision. 

It would be surprising if the Yankees allowed Cole to reach free agency, although elbow issues cropped up this year that could give some pause.

Cole was shut down during spring and did not debut until mid-June due to nerve irritation and edema in his throwing elbow, which did not require surgery. 

When Cole returned, he was solid if not spectacular in posting a 3.41 ERA over 17 starts.

He was better in the postseason (2.17 ERA), but crucially did not cover first base on a Mookie Betts ground ball that led to five unearned runs in Game 5 of the World Series. 

Cole has given the Yankees five excellent seasons. Since 2020, he is 12th in MLB in innings pitched, 13th among starting pitchers with a 3.12 ERA and has been the sixth-most valuable pitcher in baseball, according to FanGraphs.

With the Yankees, he has made three All-Star teams and won the 2023 AL Cy Young Award while emerging as a clubhouse leader. 

In free agency, though, the goal for teams is to pay for future value rather than past value.

If the Yankees add the extra season to a contract that would become a five-year deal for $180 million, they would be paying for Cole’s age 34 through age 38 seasons.

Will a pitcher who experienced his first real elbow concern this season remain at the top of his game into his late 30s? 

There are signs that the workhorse has begun to slow. His four-seamer averaged 97.8 mph in 2022, 96.7 mph in 2023 and 95.9 mph in 2024.

He was excellent in the postseason but utilized as the modern-day ace rather than the traditional one, pitching Games 1 and 5 in the World Series (and pitching quite well) but not an option for a three-start series after the elbow worries early in the year.

He also missed a turn through the rotation in late July with what the club called general body fatigue. 

And yet, even without the top velocity and with hiccups, Cole performed and could reach back when necessary (the 99.4 mph fastball he used to strike out Gavin Lux with the bases loaded and no one out in Wednesday’s fifth inning was the fastest pitch he threw all year).

Cole is as smart as any pitcher in the game and has a strong, five-pitch mix. If his stuff has dipped — his whiff rate has gone from 33.9 to 26.0 to 24.8 the past three seasons — he has found ways to compensate. 

If the Yankees gamble and allow Cole to see if he can beat five years and $180 million on the open market, there are other aces to pivot toward.

Corbin Burnes (four years younger than Cole), Max Fried (three) and Blake Snell (two) offer the highest ceilings. 

The most likely outcome is for the Yankees to simply attach an extra year to Cole’s deal, but his 2024 season at least has caused a bit of suspense.