Giants-Commanders, Week 9: What to expect when New York has the ball

The 2-6 New York Giants host the 6-2 division-leading Washington Commanders this Sunday. The Giants are 3.5-point home underdogs per FanDuel Sportsbook, and the Over/Under is 44.5. New York is on a short week after losing 26-18 to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.

Washington scored a miraculous last-second Hail Mary touchdown to defeat the Chicago Bears 18-15. The Giants also travel to Germany for their Week 10 matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Washington hosts the Steelers on Sunday in Week 10.

This is the second matchup between the two NFC East foes. Washington defeated the kickerless Giants in Week 2, 21-18. Kicker Graham Gano was a late addition to the injury report, and he hurt his hamstring during Austin Ekeler’s opening kickoff. Brian Daboll did not promote Jude Mcatamney from the practice squad as insurance for the game. New York played the rest of the game with no kicker and lost by a field goal.

The game has all the makings of a trap game for Washington, albeit the Giants’ Week 10 travel schedule certainly doesn’t work in their favor. Still, it’s a road divisional matchup for the Commanders, and the Giants played them tough in Week 2.

Daniel Jones also has quality numbers against Washington. Jones is 5-2-1 against Washington with 1,688 passing yards, 12 touchdown passes, and three interceptions. He threw a touchdown to Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson in Week 2 and was 16 of 28 for 178 yards. Jones is 0-6 with no passing or rushing touchdowns in six home starts over the last two seasons.

Commanders’ head coach Dan Quinn has their defense playing well. They’ve only allowed 22 points over the last two games (against Panthers and Bears). In Week 6, they surrendered 30 in Baltimore, but just 13 against the Browns in the previous week and 14 against the Cardinals in Week 4.

Defensive statistics

Washington has the 10th-best scoring defense in the league, allowing only 20.9 points a game. The Giants’ defense ranks 14th with a total of 21.9 points allowed. Some of Washington’s defensive success can be attributed to their schedule, but it’s not like the Giants’ offense is a powerhouse either.

The Commanders rank 13th in yards allowed per game, averaging 326.4 yards. The Giants rank 17th with an average of 331.1 YPG. The Commanders’ defense only allowed 186.8 passing yards per game, the sixth-best in the league. Washington does rank 25th in rush yards allowed; the Commanders allow 139.6 rushing yards per game.

Washington’s rushing EPA ranks 21st in the league. They’re averaging the fourth-highest yards per attempt (5.1); only the Saints, Buccaneers, and Giants allow more yards on the deck per attempt. New York established the run successfully in Week 2. Devin Singletary rushed for 95 yards on 16 carries (5.9 YPC) with a touchdown.

Washington blitzes at a 30.6% rate and gets pressure at a 27.8% rate. They are seventh in the league in total sacks with 22, and they’re one of the more efficient tackling teams with just 36 missed tackles. Ten of those missed tackles were in Week 2 against Devin Singletary alone. The Commanders have three total interceptions and four fumbles recovered.

They have three defenders with over 20 pressures. EDGE Dante Fowler Jr. leads the team with 24 pressures and 4.5 sacks. EDGE Dorance Armstrong has 23 pressures and three sacks, and interior defensive lineman Daron Payne also has 23 pressures with two sacks. Linebacker/EDGE Frankie Luvu has 15 pressures and four sacks, and LB Bobby Wagner has 14 pressures and three sacks.

Giants game plan

Wagner leads the team in tackles with 69. Luvu is frequently used in Quinn’s pass rush through blitzing and simulated pressure, and Wagner has gone after the quarterback 45 times this season. Quinn will change up his approach against the Giants’ offensive line. Frankie Luvu aligns all over the defensive front and is a name to monitor on Sunday.

The Giants’ game plan in Week 2 was simple: run the ball, establish double teams up front, pound the rock with a DUO attack, incorporate some TRAP/WHAM to hinder the penetration and punish the slanting defensive line, use the successful rushing attack to open up the play action passing attack, and take shots when middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) looks are available.

Quinn did a good job disguising his defense and rotating from middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) looks to closed right at the snap by buzzing deep half safeties down into the box. This was to prevent deep shots to Malik Nabers with a young secondary and to play a safer defense that keeps the offense in front — a bend-don’t-break approach against a knickerless team. It also added a quick extra defender into the box against the run; that defender would be late from depth, allowing the Giants to run the ball — that and Singletary’s ten missed tackles forced.

New York should employ a similar DUO approach from under center and shotgun. Last week against Pittsburgh, Daboll went back to the run and it worked! The Giants started three drives with some variation of shotgun DUO and zone-read while mixing shotgun power with the backside guard pulling into the rotation during the second half. New York should continue diversifying the rushing attack, but the foundation run should still be DUO.

Bobby Wagner is still playing solid football at age 34, and Luvu is an underrated player. Still, the safeties have not fit the run well from depth this season, specifically uber-athlete Quan Martin. Safety Jeremey Chinn is a box presence who struggled in Week 2 against the Giants but is usually a very effective player in run support.

New York has relied heavily on 11 personnel in recent weeks.

The Commanders will match that package with nickel, bringing Noah Igbinoghene onto the field over the slot. The offense can attack Igbinoghene and attempt to get him mismatched against Malik Nabers. The starting cornerbacks are solid assets. Rookie Mike Sainristil is a sure tackling good football player, and Benjamin St. Juste is a solid starter. Nabers got the best of the latter last game, but St. Juste was in solid coverage on many catches, including the touchdown.

Johnny Newton, the rookie second-round pick out of Illinois, had a breakout game against the Bears — seven pressures, three hits, a sack, and a STOP. He played 12 snaps in Week 2, his first NFL action after recovering from off-season foot surgery. Payne, Allen, and Newton would make a great trio on the defensive line, but Jonathan Allen is out with a torn pectoral. This has led to more snaps for Phadarian Mathis, Jayln Holmes, Sheldon Day, and even Clelin Ferrel on the edge.

New York ran the football on the road when Allen was healthy, so running the football should again be the foundation of the offensive approach. Get Daniel Jones comfortable and in rhythm with the rushing attack. Tyrone Tracy Jr. practiced in a red non-contact jersey on Thursday, a sign of progression in the concussion protocol. It’s not sure, but his outlook seems bright for Sunday.

Washington will use a lot of soft leverage on the outside in Cover 3 and Cover 4. The Giants can take a page out of Kliff Kingsbury’s playbook and throw into that leverage until the defense cheats down; a possible double move could be used to catch an overaggressive defense if the Giants can successfully connect in quick game.

Final thoughts

This is a classic trap game for the Commanders. They’re on the road against a divisional foe who played them well earlier in the season, and they’re coming off an emotional Hail Mary victory against the Bears. I’m unsure how to quantify this, but Jones also performs better against the Commanders. New York, at least, looked competent against the Steelers on Monday Night Football, but it was Monday Night Football, so the Giants are on a short week, and they’re set to go to Germany for next week’s game. Yes, the Giants are wildly uninspiring at home, but I expect them to pull off this upset victory.