Giants-Vikings: What to expect when the Giants have the football

The 2024 NFL season is about to commence, as the New York Giants are set to host the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1. Plenty of aspects on both sidelines are different from the previous season. Saquon Barkley crossed the Benjamin Franklin Bridge, and Daniel Jones is ready for live-action after he tore his ACL last November.

The Vikings lost quarterback Kirk Cousins to the Falcons. First-round pick J.J. McCarthy tore his right meniscus and will miss the rest of his rookie season. Sam Darnold — whom the Vikings gave a one-year, $10-million contract to in free agency — will return to MetLife Stadium to face the Giants.

FanDuel has the Vikings favored by 1.5 points with an over/under of 41.5; the Giants start the season as home dogs against a backup quarterback.

Vikings defensive key additions: Edge Andrew Van Ginkel, edge Jonathan Greenard, LB Blake Cashman, CB Shaq Griffin, edge Jihad Ward, edge Dallas Turner (first-round draft pick).

Vikings defensive key losses: Edge Danielle Hunter, edge Marcus Davenport, edge D.J. Wonnum, LB Jordan Hicks.

Brian Flores

Defensive coordinator Brian Flores enters his second season with the Minnesota Vikings. Last season, Flores led the league by a wide margin in blitz percentage, blitzing on 51.5% of his defensive snaps. Wink Martindale and the Giants blitzed second most in the NFL, at 45.4%.

Blitzing is the core identity of Flores’ defense. In 2021, as head coach of the Dolphins, he blitzed at a 39.6% rate. In 2020, the Dolphins blitzed at a 40.8% rate. He spent the 2022 season as the linebackers coach for the Pittsburgh Steelers. According to Pro Football Reference, although the Vikings blitzed the most in 2023, they only got pressure on 21.9% of their snaps, which ranked 15th in the NFL (the highest number was 28.2% by the Detroit Lions).

The Flores hire starkly contrasted with the Vikings’ defensive philosophy in 2022. Ed Donatell’s defense blitzed on just 18.9% of plays, and the defense became synonymous with blown coverages on the backend — something the Giants exploited in the Wildcard Round. Head coach Kevin O’Connell opted for another approach ahead of the 2023 season.

Although based on blitzing, Flores’ system deviated slightly from his days in Miami. The high percentage of devised pressure was coupled with a complete 180 of only sending three on the pass-rush a high percentage of the time. Minnesota ranked first in the NFL in both blitzing and three-man rushes:

Flores uses variance to his advantage. It’s difficult for a quarterback to discern if the blitz is coming — which it frequently does — or if the defense drops eight into zone coverage with two wasted offensive linemen.

In the plays above, Flores creates several one-on-one matchups for his pass-rushers, with only three rushers allocated to pressure. Flores loves to crowd the line of scrimmage, sugar those A-Gaps, and either send or bail with six or seven defenders pressed on the line of scrimmage. Flores also frequently uses his safeties on blitzes; safeties Josh Metellus and Harrison Smith blitzed on more than 200 snaps last season. For reference, Giants safeties Xavier McKinney and Jason Pinnock rushed the passer on 89 collective snaps last year.

Last season, Flores deviated from his man-coverage blitz philosophy to a more zone-oriented approach. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Vikings played zone on about 69% of snaps. The defensive philosophy resembles Pat Narduzzi’s pressure/coverage at the University of Pitt.

According to ESPN’s Ellis Williams, Flores spent time with Pitt assistant coach Tiquan Underwood — the former 2009 seventh-round pick wide receiver out of Rutgers. Flores was a defensive assistant for the Patriots when Underwood was a second-year player for the team. It seems Flores adopted some of Narduzzi’s strategies and successfully employed them last season.

Here’s an excerpt from Williams’ ESPN article:

“Flores said he frequently visited with Pitt assistant coach Tiquan Underwood. The pair watched film together, and Flores said he “kind of got enamored” with a portion of Narduzzi’s defense that had been in use since Narduzzi took over as the defensive coordinator at Miami (Ohio) in 2003.

It began as a way to stop the run with six-man run pressures, and then to overwhelm quarterbacks if they threw against it. The front turns into a blitz in those situations, with coverages — known as “three under, two deep” or “two under, three deep” — that college quarterbacks couldn’t often beat. In an interview with ESPN, Narduzzi called it a “changeup” that “has been kind of our equalizer” over the years.”

The Giants must be crisp with their protection packages for Daniel Jones and the offense. Rushing lanes might be tight against a crowded line of scrimmage. If the protection can hold up, there should be more space outside the hash marks for the receivers to maneuver and succeed. Also, crowding the line of scrimmage could lead to more one-on-one opportunities deep outside the numbers — something the Giants placed a heavy emphasis on attacking through training camp.

Vikings’ personnel

Minnesota added competent run-defending football players to their defensive front in the offseason. Greenard will help fortify a unit with Jonathan Bullard, Harrison Phillips, and Jerry Tillery on the defensive line. Ward figures to be a rotational player. Losing Danielle Hunter is tough to overcome, though, for Hunter played more than 1,000 snaps with 80 pressures and 16.5 sacks.

There wasn’t a Viking who had half of Hunter’s pass-rushing production. D.J. Wonnum had 38 pressures and eight sacks last season, and he’s now a member of the Carolina Panthers. The Vikings’ leading pass rushers from last season are no longer there. Davenport, who only played in four games last year, is no longer a Viking.

Edge Pat Jones II played 634 defensive snaps last year and had 32 pressures with just one sack. The next leading pressure accumulator was safety Metellus, who had 29. Phillips had 21 pressures, then undersized LB Ivan Pace Jr. had 15, and current Cleveland Brown Jordan Hicks had 15.

It’s safe to say that the defensive front is very different, and a lot of talent has left. However, the addition of 27-year-old Jonathan Greenard will help. He had 53 pressures and 12.5 sacks last season. Andrew Van Ginkle has quietly had an excellent career in Miami. He had 53 pressures and six sacks last season. He played under Flores for three seasons with the Dolphins. The Vikings also spent their first-round pick on Dallas Turner, who recorded 55 pressures and 10 sacks last season.

Blake Cashman was signed in free agency from the Jets to assume the MIKE duties that were vacated by Hicks’ departure. Both Greenard and Cashman were with the Houston Texans last season. Pace is a perfect fit for Flores, who loves A-gap pressure. Pace Jr. is only 5’10, but he’s a solid 230-pound, and he played 703 competent snaps for the Vikings in his rookie season. He can be an issue for the Giants when the Vikings are in sub-packages.

The tragic death of rookie fourth-round pick Khyree Jackson was one reason why the Vikings just signed former defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore. Although Gilmore is 33 years old, he’s still shown above-average skills as a starter for the Cowboys and Colts in recent memory. Shaq Griffin was signed in free agency and could start opposite Gilmore, albeit Akayleb Evans — who gave Flores 855 snaps last season — could also be the starter.

Byron Murphy Jr. is a quality starter at nickel for the defense. He had six passes defended and three interceptions last season but is more comfortable as a zone defender than a man coverage one. Former second-round pick Andrew Booth Jr. has struggled with injuries and hasn’t seen the field often. Former Giant Fabian Moreau is also a depth asset for the Vikings.

Flores will use three safeties in his sub-packages. Veteran Harrison Smith, pressure specialist Josh Metellus, and Camryn Bynum form a solid trio for Minnesota. All three of those safeties played over 1,000 snaps last season for the Vikings — all three led the defense in snaps; Hunter was the only other player with over 1,000 snaps on defense.

How the Giants should attack

The Giants must be ready for Flores’ aggressive style of play. Carmen Bricillio and the protection of the Giants — including the tight ends and running backs — must be dialed in and ready for curveballs. Making Flores pay for his pressure will be an option: tight end screens, running back screens, hot throws, and a quick efficient passing attack where Daniel Jones isn’t holding onto the football should be critical for success.

The Giants have used Daniel Bellinger and Jakob Johnson — who may get promoted from the practice squad — often at fullback all offseason. This adds another element to their rushing attack, keeping the defense guessing. This approach could be leveraged against the Vikings’ smaller linebacking corps of Pace and Cashman (both are sub-second percentile in arm length/wingspan). Tight end Chris Manhertz should also factor into the run blocking.

If Flores employs the mugged six-men on the line of scrimmage looks, the Giants can attack space outside the numbers and in the intermediate parts of the field, depending on what the Vikings do post-snap. Brian Daboll should dictate to the dictator — have a quality counter punch ready for Flores’ philosophy.

Also, feature Malik Nabers. I’m uncertain if he’ll be shadowed, but Nabers will command eyeballs. If he’s one-on-one, get him the football. If the Vikings roll coverage to Nabers’s side, find Wan’Dale Robinson, Jalin Hyatt, or a tight end where space is vacated.

Provide Nabers with free releases and attack the Vikings downfield with Nabers if they attempt to press and get physical with the rookie receiver. Aggression can create breathing room if the defense tries to out-physical your receivers.

The Giants can use 3×1 sets with Nabers as the innermost (No. 3) receiver to command attention from safeties on both hashes (if the Vikings are putting four eyeballs on him). This could set up deep shots for Hyatt or open up space underneath for Robinson. Jones must avoid catastrophic mistakes like the one against the Houston Texans in preseason. His mobility should still be leveraged and could be an asset in the zone-read/option game.

Final thoughts

The Giants should be able to move the football against this Vikings’ defense if their offensive line is competent. Blitzes will be sent, and Bricillo’s blocking must be on their P’s and Q’s. Jones has to find quick solutions when the Vikings are plus-one on the blitz. If those quick solutions are vertical one-on-one shots — excellent — if they’re quick check-downs, that’s fine too, as long as Jones isn’t taking unnecessary shots that put the Giants in second or third-and-long.

Sam Darnold is the Vikings’ starting quarterback. This is a winnable football game against a defensive coordinator similar to the one the Giants recently had on staff. The offensive line should be much better. Nabers is a superstar in the making, and the Giants are relatively healthy. Brian Daboll is now calling plays. They should be able to move the football and score some points as home underdogs in Week 1.