Golden Knights vs. Stars Game 5 prediction: NHL playoffs odds, picks, best bets

When the modern NHL playoff format was installed, it was designed to create tighter competition from the get-go.

The first-round series between the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars is just the latest example of the league’s vision in the flesh.

Oddsmakers have been here, there and everywhere throughout the first four games that have been split two apiece.

The road team is 4-0 with the Stars favored heading back home to Dallas for Game 5 on Wednesday evening. 

Golden Knights vs. Stars odds

Golden Knights vs. Stars prediction

The Knights have edged the Stars in shots on goal for three games in this series, but they have been lagging defensively.

They have allowed double the amount of high-danger scoring chances than the Stars have at five-on-five and have turned the puck over at a concerning frequency. 

On the topic of five-on-five, Dallas leads all teams in the playoffs in expected goals rate and is within the top-five teams at puck possession.

Its penalty kill dropped the ball in Game 1, letting the Knights score on both of their power-play opportunities. 

A soft go-ahead goal that Jake Oettinger missed the mark proved the difference in Game 2 — all despite Dallas sustaining pressure in a tilt where the looks on net were few and far between. 

Oettinger was on the money in Vegas thereafter. He returns to Texas after rejecting more than 94 percent of shots he faced and yielding 1.77 goals throughout Games 3 and 4 while the Stars played responsibly in front of him. 

Bruce Cassidy has confirmed he will be giving Adin Hill the crease on Wednesday. Hill is making his first start of this playoffs after anchoring the 2023 Stanley Cup squad. 

He was not in the same form when he returned from injury at the end of the season.

All three of his starts in April featured three or more goals against and save percentages below .900, which was the impetus for Logan Thompson initially getting the baton in the first place. 

This is more of a rhythm change than a necessity, but Hill is thrust into action with his work cut out for him. 

It’s not to take any credit away from the Knights, who might be the most unsavory wild-card team a No. 1 seed has had to encounter in recent memory.

Betting on the NHL?

Vegas’ resilience spearheaded by its experience and the clutch playoff showing of Jack Eichel has kept things interesting. 

But without special teams and some key bounces, this would not be an even series. The results don’t always reflect the substance, but that’s hockey.  

Golden Knights vs. Stars pick

The momentum is with the Stars, so I’m playing them on the puck line with a chance to eliminate the Knights back in Vegas at stake.

Pick: Stars -1.5 (+165, BetRivers)