Guardians vs. Astros prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets for Thursday

Spencer Arrighetti, the Houston Astros’ No. 3 prospect, has had a tough time finding success versus big-league hitters since being called up from Triple-A three weeks ago.

He has allowed an ERA of 10.97 and failed to complete more than four innings in each of his three starts. In his debut filling in for an injury-depleted Houston staff, he allowed seven runs, seven hits and three walks in three innings.

However, there are some advanced metrics that suggest the highly touted 24-year-old is going to find better results moving forward.

Arrighetti gets the nod for the Astros on Thursday night against the Guardians. Let’s look at what we can expect from him in his fourth career start.

Guardians vs. Astros odds

Guardians vs. Astros prediction

Arrighetti has pitched to an xERA of 4.38 and an xFIP of 4.18. He has generated a 30.3% whiff rate, and has struck out 25.9% of batters faced. He owns a Pitching+ rating of 99.

It’s realistic to say that Arrighetti could actually outperform Guardians starter Logan Allen from this point forward.

Allen has pitched to an xERA of 4.41, and an xFIP of 4.40. He’s struck out just 19.3% of batters faced and been hard-hit 42.3% of the time.

He owns a Pitching+ rating of just 93 and has allowed a slugging percentage of .570 on pitches in the strike zone this season.

Allen has also faced off against a softer-than-average slate of opponents so far. The opposing sides he has pitched against average 18th place in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching.

The Astros have been dominant versus left-handed pitchers this season. They own the fourth best wRC versus lefties at 123, and a fifth best wOBA of .342.

Their 16.5% K-rate to left-handers is second best, and they have generated soft contact only 13.8% of the time.

The Guardians will be in their lesser splits versus a righty in Arrighetti.

They hold a wRC+ of 102 versus right-handed pitching and a 13th-ranked OPS of .695. Their xSLG of .375 ranks fifth in MLB.

A big part of the Guardians’ surprisingly strong offense has been their fourth-ranked .337 BABIP with runners in scoring position. If that mark moves in line with their expected rates, it is going to cause a steep decrease in run production.

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Guardians vs. Astros pick

Despite the vastly differing records between these sides, and Arrighetti’s horrendous 10.97 ERA, this line might still be underselling the Astros’ chances of collecting a much-needed win on Thursday.

Anything better than -135 is worth a bet on the Astros in this matchup.

Pick: Astros moneyline (-130, bet365 | Play to -135)