Guardians vs. Tigers Game 3 prediction: NLDS odds, picks, best bets

Comerica Park was home to some boisterous crowds down the stretch of the regular season as the Tigers locked in their wild-card berth.

Now the Tigers finally return home after knocking off the Astros in Houston in the wild-card round and earning an ALDS split in Cleveland through the first two games. Wednesday afternoon’s Game 3 (3:08 p.m., TBS) should feature an electric atmosphere as a result. 

Cleveland’s Alex Cobb will make his first playoff appearance in 4,021 days. Due to a blister on his pitching hand, Cobb has not seen game action since Sept. 1.

Manager Stephen Vogt likely won’t be counting on his starter to work overly deep into this game, and oddsmakers have set a betting line of just 11.5 outs for the veteran righty.

Guardians vs. Tigers odds 

Guardians vs. Tigers prediction

In a tiny sample of 16 1/3 innings, Cobb has been effective this season with an ERA of 2.76. He holds a K-BB% of just 11.2% but continues to generate a lot of ground balls (61.2%), which is consistent with his last two seasons in San Francisco. 

He will be supported by a Guardians bullpen which finished the regular season with MLB’s lowest ERA at 2.57. Over the last month, Cleveland relievers pitched to an xFIP of 3.50 and struck out 9.79 batters per nine innings. 

The Tigers could opt to start blue-chip pitching prospect Jackson Jobe in this contest. Another possibility is starting an “opener” like Trevor Holton, who had a horrid outing in Game 1.

Either way, you can count on the Tigers to use their chaotic bullpen deployment that worked so well throughout September.

Jobe, the No. 4 overall prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline, has exceptional arm talent (125 Stuff+ rating) and features four elite pitches. In 91 2/3 innings in the minor leagues this season, he pitched to an ERA of 2.36.

Since being called up on Sept. 25, he’s only pitched 4 1/3 innings, including a big spot versus Houston where he allowed two critical earned runs in just a third of an inning.

I’d argue the Tigers need to continue using him in the playoffs and bet on his upside because they don’t have enough pitching depth elsewhere, and the outing against the Astros involved a couple of tough breaks. 

Since Aug. 1, the Tigers have hit to a wRC+ of 99, and an 11th-ranked wRC+ of 105 versus right-handed pitchers. In the same span, Cleveland hit to a wRC+ of 96.

While their offensive process revolves around keeping balls in play and strong plate discipline, the Guardians’ 30th-ranked hard-hit rate in that span is concerning. 

Guardians vs. Tigers pick

The Tigers entered the playoffs amid a 21-9 tear and it continues to feel as if they have something truly special going.

The Guardians have superior high-leverage arms, but outside of that, I don’t believe they hold a pitching edge in this matchup.

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The Tigers’ offense has been better for a fairly large sample, and they will play at home in front of a raucous crowd in this matchup. In a virtual pick’em game, that should be enough of an edge.

Best bet: Tigers moneyline (-106, FanDuel) 

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.