Horse Racing

Handicapper Helper: Haskell Horse-by-Horse Analysis; Picks

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5 months ago

July 19, 2024

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Handicapper Helper: Haskell Horse-by-Horse Analysis; Picks

The Haskell has been the highlight of Monmouth Park’s summer meet since its inception in 1968. The 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 has showcased standouts American Pharoah, Big Brown, Rachel Alexandra, Point Given, and many others. Saturday’s edition also has plenty of star power, though it’s uncertain which ones will run.

Mike Repole and FIerceness. Coady Photo.

Mike Repole owns multiple Grade 1 winner Fierceness and co-owns Belmont Stakes runner-up Mindframe, and he said the decision was still up in the air on Thursday. Todd Pletcher, who trains both colts, said Wednesday, “Mike is going to have to look at it and decide if he wants to run Fierceness against Mindframe or decide to split them up.”

Don’t be surprised if Fierceness skips the Haskell and runs July 27 in the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga, which is also a possible landing spot for Haskell entrant Dornoch. Trainer Danny Gargan was unhappy that his Belmont winner drew the rail, which triggered bad memories of the Kentucky Derby, in which he had a terrible trip from post 1 and finished 10th.

Hopefully, all three will run, but don’t count on it. Any of them could win, but Mindframe, the 9-5 morning-line favorite, has the most upside and shapes up as the likeliest winner. If not for shying from the whip in mid-stretch, he probably would have won the Belmont in only his third career start.

For those who bet horse racing, here’s a horse-by-horse analysis, by post position (with trainer, jockey, odds)

1 DORNOCH (Danny Gargan, Luis Saez), 5-2

He’ll have to come out running from the rail. The position-conscious Saez kept him close to the lead or in front in the Belmont, so expect a repeat of that strategy at speed-favoring Monmouth. A second straight Grade 1 win would make him the divisional leader.

Betting verdict: Win contender

2 JASPER’S PRIDE (Chuck Spina, Jomar Torres), 30-1

This Jersey-bred sprinter doesn’t belong in a Grade 1 at 9 furlongs. He has no speed and has never gone farther than 6 furlongs.

Betting verdict: No chance

3 TUSCAN SKY (Todd Pletcher, Javier Castellano), 9-2

Makes big class jump after impressive win over the track. The weakest of the Pletcher trio seems to be in over his head in his Grade 1 debut.

Betting verdict: Use underneath if at all

4 TIMBERLAKE (Brad Cox, Flavien Prat), 8-1

Once considered one of the best in his class, he hasn’t run since a fourth-place flop at even-money in the Arkansas Derby. That defeat took him off the Triple Crown trail, and Cox couldn’t have found a tougher spot for his comeback race.

5 FIERCENESS (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez), 5-2

Scratched

6 JUST STEP ON IT (Louis Linder Jr., Florent Geroux), 30-1

New York-bred belongs in an optional claimer, not a marquee event. In an impossible spot for his graded stakes debut.

Betting verdict: No chance

7 MINDFRAME (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.), 9-5

This rising star can validate himself as a contender for leading 3-year-old honors. Should sit a good stalking trip and move forward off a big effort in the Belmont.

Betting verdict: Top choice

8 SEA STREAK (Eddie Owens Jr., Jairo Rendon), 20-1

Jersey-bred colt doesn’t class up with these, and his speed figures aren’t much. Distant fifth last out behind Tuscan Sky and has lost five of his last six.

Betting verdict: No chance