HORSE RACING DAY 22: Andrew Champagne’s picks, analysis, bankroll

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. —

BANKROLL: $2,048

As we prepare for Friday’s races, the elephant in the room is the weather forecast. The remnants of Tropical Storm Debby are barreling up the coast, and it sure seems likely upstate New York will be hit (and, by the looks of the radar, hit hard).

Given the actions of tracks to Saratoga’s south, I’m a bit surprised we haven’t heard anything about a cancellation or postponement as of this writing (mid-afternoon Thursday). Colonial Downs announced changes to its calendar days ago, and Monmouth Park announced they’d be off the turf Friday a full day in advance.

Nobody wants to be the decision-maker who moves racing due to a weather forecast that turns out to be erroneous. However, we’ve known this storm’s coming for several days now. Being proactive is never a bad thing, and I think I can speak for most handicappers when I say that early communication is very much appreciated.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My action was cancelled for a second straight day when races were moved off the turf in the middle of the card.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the second race of the day, the Evan Shipman for New York-breds, and not just because it won’t be impacted by a surface switch. My top pick is #4 BANK FRENZY, who sure seems like the main speed and may offer some value. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on him in hopes he makes every pole a winning one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Best Bet: Bank Frenzy, Race 2

Longshot: Olympic Dreams, Race 3

Race 1

Silvology

Time Stone

Goodnight My Angel (MTO)

#2 SILVOLOGY (6-1): Ran a big one in her debut and may have bounced last time out at Aqueduct. She’s slated to get on the turf here, which her pedigree says she wants, and I think she’s a major player in the Friday opener regardless of the surface; #3 TIME STONE (7/2): Has run well in two starts to date and appears ready to go off of a layoff of nearly five months. She’s been working steadily at Keeneland ahead of her return and could sit an ideal stalking trip; #4 WEIGHTED AVERAGE (8-1): Has been off nearly 11 months, but gets both Lasix and Flavien Prat in her first start since September. That outing was a clunker, but her debut at Ellis Park was solid and she’s a contender if she can run back to that effort.

Race 2

Bank Frenzy

Drake’s Passage

Donegal Surges

#4 BANK FRENZY (7/2): Has wired the field twice in his last three starts and goes to the Rudy Rodriguez barn for the Evan Shipman, where he’s drawn a friendly weight impost and gets Flavien Prat. Speed is very good out of the Wilson chute, and I think they’ll have him to catch; #3 DRAKE’S PASSAGE (3-1): Ran an absolute clunker last week, when he was the 2/5 favorite in an off-the-turf event and showed zero interest. Wheeling him back here is a bold move, but his three-back win in the Commentator came over several of these; #1 DONEGAL SURGES (5/2): Was one of several that chased my second choice in the Commentator and cuts back in distance, which could help him. I think he may need Lasix to run his best, and he doesn’t get that here, but he’s never been out of the top two at Saratoga and gets a favorable inside draw.

Race 3

Donegal Forever

Olympic Dreams

Cooke Creek

#4 DONEGAL FOREVER (5/2): Is 3-for-4 with Lasix, and his two clunkers in stakes company make much more sense when you remember Lasix isn’t allowed in those races. He won last time out at Aqueduct, and his lone start to date over a wet track was a win at Gulfstream in February; #1 OLYMPIC DREAMS (10-1): Drops back into optional claiming company after two clunkers against stakes foes. He’s another who probably needs Lasix to fire his best shot, and he should be prominent early from the inside draw at a price; #6 COOKE CREEK (2-1): Took a massive step forward last time out in his first start for Mike Maker. He won by nearly six lengths that day, and a similar effort makes him formidable, but his record does suggest a wet track isn’t what he wants.

Race 4

Yo Daddy

Kantarmaci entry

Lord Flintshire

#8 YO DADDY (2-1): Is ultra-consistent and tends to run the same race pretty much every time out. He was a good second on dirt here last month, and before that was second twice in a pair of turf routes. Regardless of where this race is run, I think he’s the one to beat; #1 FRONT MAN (8-1): Merits a look at a price if this stays on the grass. He made a big middle move last time out against a decent group, and his two-back effort was solid, too. If he gets a pace in front of him, he could be rolling late; #9 LORD FLINTSHIRE (6-1): Has made a career out of collecting minor awards, with eight seconds and three-thirds to his credit. He was close behind my top pick last time out, though, and the rider switch to Flavien Prat is a notable one.

Race 5

St. Elias entry

Point Clear

Ignite the Light

ST. ELIAS ENTRY (3/5): Both #1 PENTATHLON and #1A UPSTANDING seem like major players in here, and either would probably be favored on their own. The former was beaten just a head last time out, while the latter exits a debut race that figure-makers seem to like quite a bit; #2 POINT CLEAR: I didn’t put the morning line here, because I’m almost positive 99-1 is a misprint. He’s made up ground a few different times now and stretches out to a mile for a trainer that’s enjoyed plenty of success at this stand despite only sending out a few runners; #5 IGNITE THE LIGHT (10-1): Has been off almost six months, but sports a flashy work tab for Rick Dutrow and attracts Frankie Dettori for his return. He has a one-mile race last year at Aqueduct that wasn’t bad, and he may have enough ability to snatch a piece of this at a price.

Race 6

Keepinitreal

Vibrant Express

Man of Mischief (AE)

#9 KEEPINITREAL (7/2): Gets a tepid nod in what hits me as a wide-open 2-year-old maiden event. This son of City of Light is out of a 2-year-old stakes winner, who herself is out of a mare that produced several stakes-caliber horses, and the big work on July 14th jumps off the page; #6 VIBRANT EXPRESS (3-1): is another that’s bred to be precocious. Sire Vekoma has been throwing runners, and his dam won a stakes at two and is a productive broodmare with no less than seven winners to this point; #11 MAN OF MISCHIEF (5/2): Needs a scratch to draw in, but has an experience edge over most of these and must be respected if she runs. She was second in her unveiling here last month and beat the third-place finisher by nearly 10 lengths. This barn’s horses tend to improve after a start or two, and the outside draw would be a plus.

Race 7

Printrack (MTO)

Kantarmaci entry (MTO)

Yarrow

Given the weather forecast, I honestly don’t know how we can expect any turf races beyond this point. With that in mind, my usual form of analysis isn’t particularly helpful in three of the last four races. If you’re looking at main-track-only runners, #13 PRINTRACK (3-1) should improve after going way too fast early on last time out against a better group.

Race 8

Leeloo

Kant Hurry Love

Security Code

#4 LEELOO (9/5): Has never been worse than second in five starts over wet tracks and has every right to turn the tables on my second choice in the Union Avenue. Those two comprised the exacta in a similar race downstate, but I think this one could sit an ideal trip just off a hot pace; #7 KANT HURRY LOVE (2-1): Is established at this level and has run three strong races in as many outings this season. I don’t think she’s quite as sharp in the mud, but she’ll almost certainly be the one they have to catch turning for home; #2 SECURITY CODE (8-1): Comes in off of two clunkers downstate, but she loves Saratoga and has two wins and two seconds in four career starts at the Spa. She’s a bit on the inconsistent side, but her best effort is good enough to contend here and she’s run well over wet tracks in the past.

Race 9

Promiseher America

Kiss Me Hardy (MTO)

Breath Away

Don’t get too excited, because if this comes off the turf, you’re almost certainly not getting 15-1 on #1 PROMISEHER AMERICA. Between scratches and her being a Grade 3 winner on dirt, a third of that price would provide value. However, I think this is a weaker group than the one she faced last time out, and she may have bounced off of a solid return to the races two back.

Race 10

On the Hill (MTO)

Big Prankster

Boss Tweed

This is probably a “now or never” spot for #13 ON THE HILL (2-1). He’s been a close-up second in both of his last two starts, but this should present the best opportunity for him to clear this condition that he’ll ever expect to get. He’s a dirt horse, this race should move off the turf, and I expect him to be prominent early.

Originally Published: August 8, 2024 at 6:30 p.m.