How long will it take for Malik Nabers to become a ‘problem’ for NFL cornerbacks?

We now know from Hard Knocks Off Season that Malik Nabers was the wide receiver the New York Giants wanted the most if they couldn’t trade up for a quarterback. Brian Daboll loved his tape, Joe Schoen almost prayed that he’d be there when the Giants were on the clock, and Nick Saban anointed him as one of the two “problems” for Alabama’s defense. (Nabers had 10 receptions for 171 yards and a TD in LSU’s loss at Alabama last season.) Now that training camp has begun, the press and Giants fans will surely be parsing every pass thrown to Nabers for early signs of whether he is going to be worthy of the No. 6 pick, or a bust. The early returns are good, with Nabers making several impressive catches.

The NFL is not college – Nabers will probably see every team’s CB1 much of the time, and there will be no Mississippi States (1-7 SEC West record in 2023) on the schedule for him to rack up 13 catches, 239 yards, and 2 TDs against as he did last season. We all know that it takes time to adjust to the pros – but how true is that for wide receivers? How soon will we be able to tell whether Nabers is the real deal?

Giants fans have one convenient reference point: Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ started the 2014 season injured, but when he finally saw the field in game 5 against Atlanta, he put the Giants ahead in the fourth quarter with a leaping catch in the end zone:

That was one of four catches for 44 yards he’d make that day, and things looked promising. It didn’t happen immediately, though. Here are OBJ’s single-game stats for the season:

In his second game, OBJ only had 2 catches in 3 targets for 28 yards in an Eagles’ 27-0 skunking of the Giants. That was followed by 4 catches in 7 targets for 34 yards in a loss at Dallas. His three-game total: 15 targets, 10 receptions, 106 yards (3 TDs, though).

If Nabers has 10 receptions for 106 yards in his first three games, what will you say? (I already know – it’s Daniel Jones’ fault, he won’t/can’t throw downfield, Nabers is being wasted, and Eli would have hit him deep. Except that Eli was throwing to OBJ in those games.)

Look at what happened after that, though: 90 yards or more in every single game the rest of the season, over 100 yards seven times, three more multiple-TD games. His PFF receiving (i.e., route-running) grades, which were average in his second and third games, increased to at least very good in every game after that, including games in which he graded 85.5, 91.3, and 91.5. His season grade from PFF was an outstanding 91.2 (PFF season grades are not simple averages of individual game grades; they grade up for consistency of good play, recognizing that no one is great in every game).

Highly-touted college wide receivers have had a variety of experiences adjusting to the NFL. One of the most well known was Ja’Marr Chase, who had an awful first training camp with numerous dropped passes even though he was catching balls from his former college quarterback. He was being seen as a potential bust before he ever played a game that counted. Then he went out Week 1 and caught 5 of 7 targets for 101 yards and a TD, and that was the end of the story.

That said, wide receiver tends to be a position at which the highest rated rookies succeed early. Not always – take for example the case of Corey Davis, the No. 5 pick in 2017. Davis had a mediocre rookie season, built on that with a few good years, but has not been in the NFL since the 2022 season:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Lance Zierlein’s draft profile of Davis said, “Touchdown juggernaut who was a four-year model of production and consistency in college. Davis has the route-running and ball skills to become a starter in the league, but it is his competitiveness and production in the red-zone that should make him a good one.” It never quite happened. Yes, he came out of the Mid-American Conference, but so did Antonio Brown and Greg Jennings.

Davis has been more the exception than the rule, though. Most highly-touted wide receivers have transitioned well to the NFL. Last season, eight wide receivers had PFF receiving grades of 90 or higher:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Here’s a summary of the rookie years of each:

• Tyreek Hill: Has never graded below 80 in any NFL season, but only had 593 receiving yards and 9.7 yards per catch as a rookie. His second year he improved to 1,183 yards and 15.7 yards per catch (and that was before Patrick Mahomes became the starter) and he’s only been below 1,000 yards once since.
• Brandon Aiyuk: 76.0-80.9 PFF grades his first three seasons, but with receiving yards increasing steadily from 748 to 816 to 1,015 to finally 1,342 in 2023.
• CeeDee Lamb: Somewhat like Aiyuk, graded “only” 72.6 as a rookie, but then 84.6, 87.5, 91.4 in subsequent years, with receiving yards going from 935 to 1,102 to 1,359 to 1,749.
• Justin Jefferson: Has graded above 90 in every one of his four seasons, with receiving yards increasing from 1,400 as a rookie (!) to 1,616 to 1,809 before decreasing to “only” 1,074 yards in 2023, when he missed seven games due to injury.
• Jaylen Waddle: Receiving grades that increased from 78.5 to 85.0 to 90.9 and yards from 1,015 to 1,356 before dropping back to 1,014, when he missed three games.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: Receiving grades that increased from 79.4 to 90.4 to 90.7 and receiving yards from 912 to 1,161 to 1,515.
• Nico Collins: The biggest surprise in the group. Had an unremarkable first two years (65.1 and 72.0 grades, 446 and 481 yards) before exploding in 2023 for 1,297 yards and a 90.6 grade.
• A.J. Brown: Perhaps the most consistent of them all, always grading between 83.0 and 90.4 in five years. Other than 2021, when he missed four games and only had 869 yards, Brown had 1,051 and 1,075 yards in his seasons as a Titan and 1,496 and 1,456 in his two years as an Eagle.

Not all of these receivers were first round picks. Aiyuk, Lamb, Jefferson, and Waddle were, and Hill would have been were it not for his off-field issues. St. Brown was a fourth rounder, Collins a third rounder, and Brown a second round pick. Collins has had the most remarkable transformation, becoming a star after two nondescript years. The C.J. Stroud effect? Or maybe the Bobby Slowik (offensive coordinator) effect?

Here are Malik Nabers’ college stats:

Courtesy of Sports Reference

Like several of the top NFL receivers, Nabers’ college stats steadily improved over three years. The final two years were with Jayden Daniels, though. The number that stands out is the jump from 3 to 14 TDs in his last two years (when Daniels’ TD totals jumped from 17 to 40). Nabers’ LSU numbers are somewhat better than Beckham’s were.

The bottom line: We can’t expect Nabers to perform miracles right away. It’s reasonable to hope for a promising rookie season. It’s not out of the question that we might see a 1,000-yard rookie season, but Hill, Aiyuk, and Collins didn’t come anywhere near that and have turned out to be among the best receivers in the NFL. Waddle did do it…with a QB who had been derided as “Two-yard Tua” before he got there. St. Brown came close with a QB who was jettisoned by the team that drafted but no longer wanted him.

Good quarterback play, and an offensive line that gives Nabers time to get downfield, will help. Sometimes, though, it just takes time.