How will Tom Brady do? Are you ready for Netflix games? Six big NFL media questions for 2024

We are within two weeks of the opening game of the NFL calendar — Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs hosting Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on Sept. 5. The game, which will air on NBC and Peacock, is a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. As we get ready for the official start of America’s pastime, here are the six big questions to consider from a media perspective.

1. How will Tom Brady do as a Fox NFL analyst?

Brady is easily the biggest NFL media story of 2024 given his fame. He starts with a massive audience: The NFL gave Fox a Week 1 game featuring the Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns in a national Sunday afternoon window. (Fox asked its partners at the NFL to load up the early season with games that can draw huge audiences because it didn’t have the success it expected in the 4:25 p.m. ET window last year.) That means an intense amount of eyeballs on Brady, who will draw curiosity seekers early. He ends with calling Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9.

In a different era, Brady would have started his NFL broadcasting career doing less high-profile games or as a second analyst on an “A” team. That was the formula for Troy Aikman and Cris Collinsworth. But in today’s NFL broadcasting landscape — and given the money Brady is being paid — there is no apprentice period. He will be judged immediately, fair or unfair.

Those working with him — Fox is running a very tight ship regarding going on the record about Brady — said he’s fully invested in becoming a good broadcaster. He’s funny, occasionally profane, and comes off like a normal person with a not-so-normal career and life. His crew has already done practice games in Santa Clara and L.A.,  and Brady has been on a fact-finding mission about broadcasting for months. Both Tony Romo and Jim Nantz told The Athletic earlier this year that they speak with Brady often.

My initial thoughts on Brady before hearing him: I think he’s going to better at this than you might expect. He’s a football obsessive, and this usually leads to interesting broadcasters. Second, I would bet nearly everything I have that he won’t complete his 10-year deal with Fox. He’s always struck me as someone with greater ambition than broadcasting. But we haven’t had a more anticipated sports broadcasting debut in some time, and I’m really curious to see how this plays out.

2. Will the Presidential election impact NFL numbers?

It’s a question getting discussed within the sports viewership nerdom corners of the business as well as NFL headquarters. NFL viewership has historically declined in U.S. Presidential election years. For instance, NFL games averaged 16.5 million viewers in 2016, down from 18.1 million in 2015. The 2020 season is a little tricky because of COVID, but games averaged 15.4 million viewers, down from 16.5 million. The 2012 season averaged 16.6 viewers, down from 17.5 million in 2011.

Of course, there are always multiple factors as to why ratings fluctuate, but news consumption drawing audiences away from the NFL is a real thing. It’s something to keep an eye on, especially in a highly polarized political environment.

3. How will consumers react to the Netflix Christmas games?

We learned in May that Netflix had landed exclusive rights to stream two NFL games on Christmas Day 2024 — the Chiefs against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Ravens versus the Houston Texans. The three-season deal also includes a game on Christmas Day in 2025 and 2026. CBS will produce the two games this year, and that’s significant because Netflix is not in a position to produce NFL games on its own. It ensures that the games will come off as a network-level product. (CBS-owned stations in Baltimore and Pittsburgh and CBS affiliates in Kansas City and Houston will also air the games.)

The big question that looms is Netflix’s long-term ambition when it comes to major sports. Amazon dipped its toes in the NFL waters before going big — and look at the streamer now. If the numbers are big, and why wouldn’t they be, we are really going to start hearing the drumbeat of Netflix eventually entering into a more significant partnership with the NFL. Keep in mind: The NFL has an international slate of games that it can easily turn into a future media rights package.

4. How does Greg Olsen deal with being on Fox’s No. 2 team?

Yes, it’s no fun to be demoted, and it’s a significant reduction in money (my colleague Andrew Marchand has reported that Olsen’s salary will drop from $10 million to $3 million with the change from a No. 1 to a No. 2 team). Still, Olsen has played his professional situation with great aplomb. He’s already proven he has the bona fides to be a No. 1 NFL TV analyst, so whenever a No. 1 job opens up in the future, he’s going to get a significant look.

Workwise, Olsen gets an excellent play-by-play voice in Joe Davis and a great sideline reporter in Pam Oliver. The transition should be seamless. One thing Fox will have to figure out is how to use him at the Super Bowl. They should come up with a creative way to get him significant airtime on the broadcast.

5. How much do viewers care about NFL pregame studio show changes?

Phil Simms and Boomer Esiason, both of whom played significant roles on CBS’ NFL coverage for decades, are no longer on “The NFL Today.” Matt Ryan has taken that spot. ESPN parted ways with longtime “Sunday NFL Countdown” host Sam Ponder and replaced her with Mike Greenberg. ESPN also brought in Jason Kelce to be part of the “Monday Night Countdown” studio show to replace Robert Griffin III, who joined Ponder as part of an ESPN cost-cutting decision. Will there be any pronounced viewer reaction or viewership impact based on those transactions?

Replacing Ponder so close to the NFL season was an odd decision, though ESPN management seems determined to have Greenberg host every show, so this adds to that effort. (As I said on social media, I would have selected Laura Rutledge given her daily NFL bona fides and deep college football resume.) Ryan has currency being fairly fresh off the field, and Kelce was a hot free agent. The only move here that could have viewership implications from my perspective is Kelce, given there could be some curiosity tune-in early in the season, especially as the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce news cycle gets heated again in NFL media circles.

6. Will Bill Belichick fall in love with broadcasting?

Conventional wisdom suggests Belichick will be looking for a head-coaching job for one last run to pass Don Shula on the all-time wins list. But as I’ve written for years: He has the potential to be a quality broadcaster when the subject is Xs & Os because he’s always been good in these settings (such as his NFL Films work). Belichick was informative on Pat McAfee’s NFL Draft special, and he’ll have multiple media roles this fall. He’ll be a regular guest on McAfee’s show, have a permanent guest spot on ESPN’s “Monday Night Football with Peyton and Eli,” play a role on the CW’s “Inside the NFL,” and will host “Coach with Bill Belichick” — a weekly football analysis show for Underdog Fantasy that will run on YouTube.

If you want to call out Belichick for the hypocrisy of being a grump with the media and then embracing media gigs and the cash that comes with it, please do. He joins a long list there. But we have all witnessed famous coaches settle into long media careers. It’s a very nice gig to not only have your rump kissed by media executives — they pay you for that privilege.

GO DEEPER

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(Top photo of Tom Brady presenting the trophy after the UFL championship game in June: Scott Rovak / UFL / Getty Images)