Iowa vs. Troy prediction: College football picks, odds, bets

There are some games every college football fan circles on the schedule each year.

The Iron Bowl, The Red River Showdown and, if you’re in Iowa or just a fan of the 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust football from a bygone era, the annual Cy-Hawk Game between Iowa and Iowa State. 

The entire Hawkeye State comes to a standstill for Cy-Hawk and it almost always delivers in its own unique way.

These two teams won’t light up the scoreboard, but they’re guaranteed to give fans an honest, hardworking game of football that usually comes down to the wire.

Six of the last 10 meetings have been decided by one score and three of the last five came down to a margin of three points or less. 

This year’s Cy-Hawk Trophy went to Iowa State after the Cyclones erased a 13-0 deficit and pipped the Hawkeyes, 20-19, on a last-second field goal. 

It was a heartbreaking defeat for the Hawkeyes, who now have to pick themselves up for a game against Troy on Saturday before getting their Big 10 schedule underway against Minnesota a week later. 

This is just a brutal scheduling spot for the Hawkeyes, which makes it a perfect fit for our weekly Ugly Underdog position. 

Not only do we have a potential letdown situation on our hands, but this is a massive spread for a team like Iowa to cover.

The Hawkeyes were supposed to add some more pep in their step on offense in 2024, but so far it’s been a mixed bag.

Iowa hung 40 points on Illinois State in Week 1, but it was 6-0 at halftime in that game and the Hawks didn’t set the world ablaze against their in-state rivals seven days later. 

Iowa raced out to a 13-0 lead against Iowa State but managed six more points in the second half. 

Of course, things should come easier against Troy compared to Iowa State, but it’s not as if this Iowa attack is set up to be an explosive outfit.

The offensive coordinator may be different and the philosophy may have changed a little bit, but this is still Iowa.

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The Hawkeyes will be lumbering, methodical and efficient rather than quick, risky and explosive. 

That always makes Iowa an ideal target to fade when spreads get into this range. It is not likely to get the quick scores needed to make you feel comfortable it will blow a team away. 

Another reason to be bullish on Troy to keep this within three touchdowns is the low total.

Betting on College Football?

Sitting at 38.5, Iowa vs. Troy features the lowest Over/Under of any game on the board in Week 3.

That tells you bookmakers aren’t expecting much in the way of offense, which makes it even more difficult to find a path to success for an Iowa -22.5 ticket. 

Iowa looking to rebound against an 0-2 Sun Belt team in the midst of a rebuild may not be everybody’s cup of tea, but it’s the ugly games that often provide the most value on any given Saturday. 

Strap in, folks, because there’s nothing quite like betting an Iowa football game. 

Recommendation: Troy +22.5 (BetMGM)