Jalen Brunson contract extension: Knicks All-Star could leave $114 million on the table

Jalen Brunson has the decision of a lifetime on his hands.

If Brunson foregoes a contract extension with the Knicks this summer, he could be in line for a significant raise should he wait another season before inking a new deal.

A massive pay raise worth the risk, however, is not a foregone conclusion.

Here’s what you need to know about Brunson’s contract extension before he becomes eligible to put pen to paper when the season is over.

BRUNSON CAN SIGN A CONTRACT EXTENSION BEGINNING ON JULY 12

July 12 marks the two-year anniversary to the date Brunson signed a four-year, $104 million contract leaving the Dallas Mavericks for the Knicks in free agency.

The deal, along with many others for the Knicks front office, has been viewed as a large success.

The Knicks have secured back-to-back second-round playoff appearances since Brunson signed.

His 28.73 points per game in the 2023-4 season ranks third all-time in Knicks single-season scoring behind only Bernard King and Richie Guessing, meaning yes: Brunson’s campaign outpaced vaunted Knicks scorers Carmelo Anthony and Patrick Ewing.

He also captained one of just 14 Knicks teams to ever reach the 50-win mark, powering New York to the Eastern Conference’s No. 2 seed for just the second time since Ewing in 1994 and the first time since Anthony in 2013.

Not bad for a player whose salary ranked 53rd in all of basketball last season.

Next season, Brunson will fall to 56th on the league-wide payroll list because his contract with the Knicks was frontloaded. He earned more in Year 1 ($27.73 million) than he will in Years 3 or 4 ($24.96 million).

In fact, Brunson’s upcoming contract extension would be north of $17 million more lucrative if his contract was structured in a traditional manner paying more on the back end as opposed to the front.

Instead, he will be eligible for a 40 percent raise on the final year of his deal, or a four-year contract extension worth $156.5 million. The payout schedule could look as follows:

• $34.94 million in Year 1
• $37.7 million in Year 2
• $40.5 million in Year 3
• and $43.3 million in Year 4

In this instance, Brunson would decline the player option on the fourth and final year (worth $24.96 million) of his current contract and these extension years would follow Year 3 on his current deal (also worth $24.96 million).

His contract would essentially become a five-year deal in New York worth $181 million.

BRUNSON WOULD MAKE A LOT MORE MONEY IF HE WAITS ONE YEAR

The Knicks will own Brunson’s Larry Bird rights at the conclusion of his third full season played in New York.

This will allow the Knicks to exceed the salary cap to re-sign Brunson to his maximum salary, which is 30 percent of the cap for players with seven-to-nine years of experience, and 35 percent of the cap for players who meet the higher-max criteria of making All-NBA either the year before signing the extension or two of the three years prior to the season before singing the extension.

Brunson, for example, would be eligible for the supermax of 35 percent of the cap if he earned All-NBA honors again next season.

That would be a five-year, $314.85 million deal, worth more than double the amount of the four-year, $156.5 million extension currently awaiting the All-Star guard this summer.

All-NBA honors, however, are not a foregone conclusion.

Brunson, for example, made Second Team All-NBA this season, but here are the players at his position who failed to qualify for the voting process due to not meeting the NBA’s new 65-game requirement for end-of-the-season awards and honors:

• Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies)
• Trae Young (Atlanta Hawks)
• Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers)
• Darius Garland (Cleveland Cavaliers)
• Kyrie Irving (Dallas Mavericks)
• Jimmy Butler (Miami Heat)

And since All-NBA teams are now positionless, you can add Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers), Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota Timberwolves), Kristaps Porzingis (Boston Celtics) and New York’s own Julius Randle as players who did not play 65 games last season that Brunson would now be competing against for All-NBA honors.

If Brunson failed to make an All-NBA team next year, he would remain eligible for a deal worth 30 percent of the cap, a five-year deal worth $269.8 million.

It’s about $114 million more than he could get if he signs the extension this summer.

Brunson’s season ended on a fractured left hand, and an injury next season without a contract guarantee would put the star Knicks guard in a disadvantageous bargaining position.

TAKING LESS MONEY ALSO HELPS THE KNICKS

Brunson might not earn what his All-Star caliber peers are generating, but Jeff Van Gundy once famously said while calling a game “comparison is the thief of joy,” and few things bring Brunson more joy than winning basketball games.

Taking a pay cut, though it’s a 40 percent raise, will give the Knicks more flexibility to pursue an additional max-salary level player after Brunson’s extension kicks in.

Brunson is only one player the Knicks have decisions to make on this offseason.

After trading Immanuel Quickley, R.J. Barrett and pick No. 31 in the upcoming 2024 NBA Draft, the Knicks must re-sign OG Anunoby to a long-term deal.

They must figure out what the center position looks like with Isaiah Hartenstein entering free agency with his value having doubled since the season began and Mitchell Robinson undergoing his second stress reaction surgery on his left ankle in a five-month span.

The Knicks must also decide on a course of action with the pair of first-round picks (Nos. 24 and 25) in the upcoming draft.

They must also make a decision on Randle, the three-time All-Star perpetually included in trade rumors.

Brunson signing the extension now gives the Knicks and their fans one fewer thing to worry about.

Though you can’t fault someone for betting on themselves. After all, there’s $114 million on the table if Brunson decides he wants to go and get it. And there’s $181 million staring him in the face the moment he becomes eligible to sign the extension on July 12.