Jets vs. Broncos prediction: NFL Week 4 odds, picks, props, best bets

Coming off a dominant win over the Patriots and working on nine days rest, the Jets host the Broncos on Sunday in the early NFL window of games (1 p.m. ET, CBS). 

Denver got its first win of the season last week over Tampa Bay, but the Broncos are in a tough spot here, playing their second straight game on the East Coast and their third road game in four weeks.

The Jets opened as 7.5-point favorites, which has stayed steady throughout the week. The total, however, has been bet down to 39.5 from an open of 42.5.

Let’s dive into the matchup.

Broncos vs. Jets odds

When the Broncos have the ball

On Sunday, Bo Nix had his best game as a pro against a Buccaneers defense that blitzed him at a 60 percent rate.

Highlighting impressive velocity, the rookie completed 2 of 3 passes of 20-plus yards downfield, but he’s also a quarterback who understands that you won’t go broke taking a profit in the NFL. That’s a night and day difference from Caleb Williams, the Bears’ No. 1 overall pick who has struggled while holding onto the ball too long.

Nix has a tough test this week against a secondary that ranks third in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, but this isn’t the same pass rush we saw from the Jets last year.

Gang Green racked up seven sacks against the Patriots’ beat-up offensive line last week, but they rank just 25th in pass-rush win rate and need Haason Reddick on the field as soon as possible.

The Broncos have struggled to find sustained success on the ground, and that’s unlikely to change this week. Denver’s offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted line yards, per FTN Fantasy, and the Jets have the fourth-best run-stop win rate in the league.

Expect a heavy dose of the pass from an offense that ranks ninth in pass play rate.

When the Jets have the ball

Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock last week, and he now ranks fourth on the season in adjusted EPA per play.

The cerebral aspects of the game will always be there for the future Hall of Famer, but it should be highly encouraging for Jets fans to see him making throws on the run and flashing mobility. I didn’t expect to see that this early in the season after his Achilles injury.

The Broncos will blanket wide receiver Garrett Wilson with All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II and force Rodgers to beat them with other weapons, like Allen Lazard, his ex-teammate in Green Bay who has three touchdowns already.

Breece Hall will be highly involved in the run game, and one player to watch is running back Braelon Allen. The rookie rushed for 55 yards against the Patriots and could have another big game against the Broncos, who rank 19th in adjusted defensive line yards.

It will be fascinating to see how the Jets’ offensive line holds up after the loss of right tackle Morgan Moses. First-round rookie Olu Fashanu will step in and make his first career start. The Broncos have an aggressive defense, leading the NFL with a 45.7% blitz rate and ranking second in pass-rush win rate.

Player props: Broncos vs. Jets best bets

I don’t have a strong take on the spread or total in this game, but I love some of the player prop angles here. 

Bo Nix has cleared 18.5 pass completions in all three games so far, and while the Jets have an excellent secondary, they’re typically content to play Cover 4 and force opposing quarterbacks to dink and dunk their way up the field.

Of Nix’s 113 attempts this season, 48.7% have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and he’s content to take those short-area passes.

Betting on the NFL?

This matchup should also favor Braelon Allen, coming off a season-high 14 opportunities. According to PFF, the rookie running back averages 5.1 YPC and ranks fourth with 4.11 yards after contact per attempt.

The game script and matchup should favor Allen to continue his success on the ground.

Player props to bet:

• Bo Nix over 18.5 completions (-115, bet365)
• Braelon Allen over 34.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.