Jets vs. Patriots Week 3 prediction: ‘Thursday Night Football’ odds, picks

After a rocky season opener against San Francisco, the Jets bounced back in Week 2, beating Tennessee by a touchdown in Nashville.

Now they head home to host the Patriots, who have had a surprisingly solid start to the season.

It’s a showdown on Thursday Night Football between two 1-1 AFC East teams still trying to find their identities.

What can we expect from this divisional bout?

Can the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets beat New England at home for the first time in nearly a decade?

Here are our best bets for the spread and point total:

Patriots vs. Jets spread

The line opened up with the Jets as seven-point favorites, but quickly went to 6.5, where it has settled in at most sportsbooks.

The Jets have a 1-1 record against the spread through the first two games, while New England is 1-0-1.

Even though it would seem the Jets should crush New England in this matchup, the Patriots have been resilient and physical with a run-heavy offense through the first two weeks under new coach Jerod Mayo.

Additionally, the Jets’ defense, which was projected as a top unit heading into the season, has underperformed and is already banged up with several players showing up on the injury report. 

They will be without pass rushers Jermaine Johnson (torn Achilles) and Haason Reddick (contract dispute), while cornerback D.J. Reed (knee) and MLB C.J. Mosley (toe) are questionable to play.

Even nickel Michael Carter II is on a pitch count and likely will be for the rest of the season with a nagging ankle injury.

The pile-up of injuries and the Reddick contract dispute make the Jets frontline extremely susceptible to the run.

They have given up 310 yards on the ground — ninth-most in the league after two weeks.

However, the Pats, who have been fantastic running the football, will be missing LT Vederian Lowe and LG Sidy Sow, while C David Andrews and RT Mike Onwenu are listed as questionable.

Due to already existing issues in protecting the pass, the laundry list of injuries to their offensive line and obvious skill-position weaknesses outside of running back, it will be tough for New England to move the ball on the Jets, even with their own set of struggles and injuries.

I’ll trust the New York offense to eventually pull away Thursday night.

Recommendation: Jets -6 (-110, ESPN BET)

Over/under

The total for this game rests at 38.5 points, down from 42 where it opened. It’s tied for the second-lowest total for Week 3 and is an appropriate line for two teams that have been average offensively. 

Through the first two weeks, the Patriots are 1-1 on the Over, while the Jets are 1-0-1.

Betting on the NFL?

As is the case with teams like New England that love to run the ball, their point totals are typically lower, as the clock keeps ticking after each in-bounds run play.

However, the growing list of injuries for both teams and the Jets’ overall underwhelming performance on defense, particularly in stopping the run, are concerning enough to consider the over in this spot.

Additionally, Rodgers and Company should not have any issues scoring a few touchdowns against a bottom-third Pats secondary that just let Geno Smith throw for nearly 330 yards. 

Recommendation: Over 38.5 points (-110, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.