Kawakami: How the Warriors fit into the Lauri Markkanen deadlines and scenarios

Are the Golden State Warriors inching closer to a blockbuster trade for Lauri Markkanen while most of the NBA is either on vacation or fixated on Team USA’s trip through the Olympics? I don’t know. Nobody really knows. Maybe.

Sometimes this transaction seems very unlikely. Sometimes it seems more likely than most other potential results. It depends on when you ask and who’s guessing, because everything about this situation is unique and intricate, with multiple timelines, contrasting points of view and very different motivations on all sides.

The question I keep asking: What does Markkanen want? We know what Utah Jazz CEO Danny Ainge wants — Markkanen locked into a long-term deal and also eligible to be traded in six months. We know what Warriors management wants — Markkanen added to the roster ASAP as a 1B scoring option next to Stephen Curry and presumably willing to sign for the long term.

But we don’t know what Markkanen really wants or when he wants it all decided. We’ll start to find out in the next few days. And if nothing is resolved by the middle of this week, the drama will almost certainly build through the next few weeks or months.

The scenarios:

• Markkanen could sign a renegotiated-and-extended new deal with the Jazz on Tuesday, the first day he’s eligible for it, which, by rule, would prevent him from being traded for six months — until Feb. 6, the exact day of the NBA trade deadline.

For the Warriors, that would be a mixed outcome. They wouldn’t get another chance at Markkanen until deep into the season. But that, for the Warriors, is better than nothing.

• Markkanen could wait until Wednesday or later to sign a new deal with the Jazz, which would mean he couldn’t be traded at all during the coming season due to the six-month rule.

For the Warriors, that would be the worst potential near-term development, because they wouldn’t get a shot at Markkanen now or in February. Due to salary-cap constraints, they’d be poorly positioned to land him in the offseason too.

• Or Markkanen or the Jazz, or both, could decide to hold off on a new deal and set up an extended negotiating period in which Markkanen could be traded at any point through February, sign a new deal with the Jazz or just go through the season and hit unrestricted free agency next July.

For the Warriors, this would be the green-light scenario. I also think it’s the most likely — my guess is that if Markkanen won’t sign with Utah on Aug. 6, the deal won’t be there for him on Aug. 7 and beyond. I might be wrong, but that is my presumption. If that’s how it works out, it will be time to see what Utah can get on the trade market. And I think the Warriors would be in the front of the line, just as they were a few weeks ago when they first engaged in talks with the Jazz.

By the way, I’m going to go ahead and conclude that Scenario 1 is probably a non-starter. According to The Athletic’s Tony Jones, it’s unlikely that Markkanen will sign the new deal by Tuesday, which makes sense. The 27-year-old Markkanen knows he’s going to get major money either now or next summer. By not signing this week, Markkanen essentially gains a bit of control over his future.

So, yes, very complicated. That’s why this situation has stretched through the offseason and all the way into August. But the most important conclusion is that Markkanen is worth it. If the Warriors can swing this trade, either this week or by the February trade deadline, they’ll get an immediate lift as soon as Markkanen arrives and probably for years after that.

Let’s go over some of the key background points:

Markkanen is the best fit for the Warriors among high-profile players likely to become available over the next year or so

He’d be a young and deluxe version of Otto Porter Jr., Mo Speights or Nemanja Bjelica, the kind of full-time stretch five the Warriors really haven’t had in this era. You want more space on the floor for Curry? This is how you do it.

Markkanen would be a great fit on the frontline with Draymond Green. He’d be a great fit on the frontline with Jonathan Kuminga. He’d be a fascinating fit in a frontcourt with both Green and Kuminga. He could even probably play some minutes with Trayce Jackson-Davis in a double-center lineup.

And Markkanen (39.9 percent from 3-point distance last season) could definitely help replace some of the 3-point shooting the Warriors lost when Klay Thompson (38.7 percent from 3-point distance last season) exited this summer.

He’s not as talented as Paul George, but I think Markkanen is a better fit right now for the Warriors because he’s seven years younger, doesn’t have the same injury history and plays a style that could extend both Curry and Green’s prime years. The Warriors went hard to try to trade for George last month — and offered to give him a four-year max extension — because George is a superior overall player and would’ve given the Warriors greater immediate value. But if you include the post-Curry future (whenever that is), it’s hard to find an available player who matches the Warriors’ current and continuing needs more precisely than Markkanen.

Of course, Joe Lacob’s Warriors are always exploring ways to acquire any and all big-name players. They spent more than a year plotting out their path to acquire Kevin Durant, then actually got him in July 2016. Who knows which superstar might get weary of his current situation by February or next July? But there are no obvious headline 2025 targets as of now.

The best potential July 2025 free agent is Markkanen. And the Warriors’ best shot to get him is right now.

Does Markkanen want to end up with the Warriors long term?

This is the great unknown. My understanding is that Markkanen’s camp is not opposed to him landing with the Warriors, but that there are also other teams on the favorable list should Utah put him on the trade market. And Markkanen is definitely not opposed to staying with the Jazz, but on his own terms.

Another key question: If Markkanen is traded to the Warriors, would he sign an extension, or would he want to hit free agency and talk to other teams no matter what? If he is comfortable with the Warriors, Markkanen could somewhat guide trade talks the way that Pascal Siakam’s camp prodded Toronto’s trade talks to focus on the Indiana Pacers, or OG Anunoby’s camp guided the Raptors to focus on the New York Knicks last trade deadline. Surprise, surprise, both players signed massive long-term deals with their new teams this offseason.

I think it’s safe to say that the Warriors wouldn’t have recently talked to the Jazz about trading multiple first-round picks plus a valuable young player unless they had some inclination that Markkanen would sign long term. They’re not having these kinds of discussions just for a one-season rental.

The Warriors can’t give him the same kind of renegotiate-and-extend deal that Utah can give him right now; the Jazz can use available cap space to immediately add $14 million to this season’s deal and extend Markkanen’s contract off of that salary. The Warriors have no such space. But if the Warriors acquire Markkanen before or during this season, they could negotiate an extension with Markkanen off his current deal or maximize Markkanen’s money by signing him after he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Very importantly, if they trade for him, the Warriors would have Markkanen’s Bird rights and would not need cap space to give him his max contract in July.

Can the Warriors get Markkanen without putting any of their top young players into the offer?

This is very much TBD. On his Substack, Marc Stein reported that the Warriors have not put either Kuminga or Brandin Podziemski into any offer for Markkanen. The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported weeks ago that the young player the Warriors have offered, along with multiple first-round picks, is Moses Moody.

You can imagine what Lacob and Mike Dunleavy Jr. are thinking: The Warriors can sacrifice a huge chunk of their future draft allotment if they end up with Markkanen,  Kuminga and Podziemski as the group that will lead this team into the post-Curry years. If they put either one of those guys into the offer (and I’m guessing Utah would much rather have Podziemski because of payroll concerns), then giving up all those picks becomes a lot riskier.

So the offer is likely Moody plus a ton of picks or, maybe eventually, Moody and Podizemski but with one or two of the first-round picks pulled out of the offer. Would that get the deal done?

That will be up to Ainge, who is famous for tough trade negotiations. But the Jazz’s leverage will decrease if and when Aug. 6 goes by and there’s no Markkanen extension. Ainge could quiet everything if he signs Markkanen on Aug. 7 or later. But let’s see if that happens.

What adding a max Markkanen salary would do to the Warriors’ payroll

If the Warriors acquire Markkanen, then negotiate a new deal in July, his market rate is going to be something close to $200 million over four years. That’s just what a very valuable player hitting free agency next July will cost. If the Warriors aren’t interested in giving him this deal, they shouldn’t think about trading for him. So let’s just stipulate that the Warriors are comfortable with those numbers.

Still, the Warriors would face real-world consequences after adding a $50-million-a-year player to their payroll. They already have Curry signed for $55.8 million this season and $59.6 million in 2025-26, and surely would like to add more years at even higher numbers into the future. The Warriors also have $77.6 million committed to Green through 2026-27 and have Kuminga’s rookie extension, probably in the $30-million-a-year range, due soon.

The Warriors just got out of the second apron and are not likely to go back into it soon. If the Warriors add Markkanen or any player at that kind of salary, somebody, or multiple somebodies, would eventually have to go. Not right away. But fairly quickly. The most likely candidate: Andrew Wiggins, who is owed an average of $28.1 million over the next three years.

That’s all part of the math for something that could be very big for the Warriors, after a whole lot of planning. For now, they just have to wait. But maybe not for too long.

(Photo of Lauri Markkanen: Alex Goodlett / Getty Images)