Kentucky Derby 2024: Picks and predictions from the experts

Experts from The Post and Action Network handicap Saturday’s 150th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Post time is approximately 6:57 p.m.

Vic Cangialosi

New York Post racing handicapper

1. Forever Young: There have been 19 UAE Derby winners.

Not only has none of them gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, none of the 19 has even hit the board.

The Japanese-bred stretch-runner is 5-for-5 and like the other 19 he is proven at the Derby distance. Bothered by the dirt kickup, so he will need an extra clean trip.

Will have to outkick our next pick.

2. Sierra Leone: Was high on every expert’s Derby list prior to the Blue Grass.

After watching him power down the stretch at Keeneland, he was ranked first or a close second to Fierceness.

Like Forever Young, he has some issues.

Hard to load in the gate and bothered by crowd noise which will be in abundance at Churchill Downs. Chad Brown has never won the Derby.

This may be his best chance.

3. Fierceness: The runaway Florida Derby winner will be the one to catch and that may be easier said than done.

Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez know a little bit about the Run for the Roses.

But Mike Repole’s colt has never won two in a row, and with a field of speedy rabbits he will be kept busy on the lead.

Michael Leboff

Action Network racing handicapper

1. Just Steel: He’s a horse that can seemingly succeed in any condition and should be able to handle the distance.

He’s got terrific pedigree, plenty of experience and ran a terrific second in his last race, the Arkansas Derby.

2. Stronghold: The Kentucky Derby gets chaotic and one horse that should be able to handle all the bumping and jockeying is Stronghold.

He can hit the board if the pace doesn’t get away from him.

3. Domestic Product: We’ll stick with big prices because both favorites are vulnerable if they don’t get their perfect trip, which isn’t a given at the Kentucky Derby.

Domestic Product will need to be in a good position to close in order to hit the board, but he’s got the right jockey aboard (Irad Ortiz Jr.) to give him the best chance of that.

Will Schwartz

Action Network racing handicapper

1. Fierceness: Simply the quickest horse in this race, with multiple performances in which he earned a Beyer Speed Figure over 100.

His approach as a quick starter should work well with his post position, and he even has experience with a sloppy track that suggests that he could run quite well if Louisville does deal with storms leading up to the Derby

2. Sierra Leone: There’s a reason Sierra Leone is viewed as Fierceness’s closest challenger; this horse’s breeding is extremely well-respected and has raced strongly recently.

Nevertheless, his style as a closer might not translate to a win given his No. 3 post position, as he’ll have a tough time making up ground in his expected attempt to catch Fierceness.

Expect him to be a very strong runner-up.

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3. Just Steel: With two heavily favored horses at the top of the odds board, the third spot is up for grabs.

I’m backing the son of legendary Triple Crown winner Justify.

This horse has plenty of experience compared to his competitors and also has a top-tier trainer in four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas.

Don’t expect Just Steel to overtake that top pair of contenders, but anything can happen on race day, and he should make a push for that still-important third spot on the podium.