Knicks vs. Pacers Game 1 prediction: NBA playoffs odds, picks, best bets for Monday

Could the Knicks-Pacers rivalry be revitalized in this year’s Eastern Conference semifinals? 

The Pacers and Knicks will battle in the NBA playoffs for the first time since 2013, when Roy Hibbert met Carmelo Anthony at the apex with a legendary block in Game 6 that propelled Indiana into the conference final. 

From the Reggie Miller and John Starks battles, including Miller’s historic eight points in nine seconds, to the matchup a decade ago that featured two of the best forwards in the game, Paul George and Melo, there has never been any love lost. 

The stakes for these two teams are as high as they have been in a long time — a trip to the Eastern Conference finals. 

Let’s break down the series and offer a Game 1 prediction. 

Knicks vs. Pacers prediction

(7:30 p.m. ET, TNT)

The Knicks have hardly skipped a beat since losing Julius Randle in late January. They moved OG Anunoby to the 4 and inserted Josh Hart into the starting lineup. 

Hart has been the team’s best rebounder since Randle was sidelined, averaging 10.6 boards to go with 12 points and 5.8 assists in 36 games. 

Anunoby has been the missing piece of the puzzle for the Knicks, who boasted a 20-3 record with him in the lineup during the regular season, losing by just 16 total points in those three losses. 

Additionally, it took the Knicks just six games in the first round to knock off the 76ers, a team that seemed unstoppable when Joel Embiid was healthy (31-8 record in the regular season). 

During that first-round series, the Knicks overcame a few poor shooting nights to advance to the conference semifinals, including a Game 4 win in Philadelphia in which they shot just 25.9 percent from 3-point land. 

Finding a way to win despite having a few underwhelming outings offensively will be paramount if the Knicks want to advance past this offensive-centric Indiana team. 

The Knicks have a significant edge against the Pacers in rebounding and physicality (see their series against Cleveland last season for reference).

They rely heavily on crashing the offensive glass, ranking first in offensive rebounding percentage this season, which could trouble the Pacers since they have the sixth-lowest defensive rebounding percentage.

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Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam are solid rebounders, but Isaiah Hartenstein, Mitchell Robinson and Hart are bordering on elite in that category. The difference in physicality will be shocking for the Pacers’ frontcourt. 

The Knicks transition defense will also be key in this series. Indiana ranks fourth in fast-break points per game and eighth in fast-break efficiency. 

The Pacers utilize their up-tempo play (No. 2 in pace) and solid 3-point shooting (10th in 3-point percentage) to either break games wide open or shrink a deficit in an instant. 

Betting on the NBA?

If the Knicks can successfully force the Pacers to play at a slower pace, they will be in a favorable position because they are used to grinding out games in the half-court. 

Expect the Knicks to wreak havoc on the offensive glass, resulting in numerous put-backs and second-chance opportunities. They will also slow the pace down enough to make the Pacers extremely uncomfortable. 

The recommendation here would be to lay the points with the Knicks in Game 1.

PICK: Knicks -5.5 (-110, FanDuel)