Knicks vs. Pacers Game 2 prediction: NBA playoffs odds, picks, bets for Wednesday

The Knicks overcame a nine-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Pacers to win 121-117 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. 

Game 2 tips off Wednesday night at the Garden, with the home team opening as a six-point favorite, but that number is down to -4.5 at most sportsbooks.

Despite the victory, I’ve spotted some warning signs that could spell trouble for the Knicks moving forward.

Pacers analysis 

The Pacers played almost a perfect game in the series opener and still came away empty-handed.

They shot 52.3 percent from the floor, won the turnover battle (15-8) and outscored the Knicks inside the paint (64-58).

The Knicks essentially won the game from the free-throw line, where they outscored Indiana, 22-15. 

The good news for the Pacers is they held their own on the offensive glass against the NBA’s best rebounding team. They finished with seven offensive boards vs. eight for the Knicks. 

It’s worth noting that Indiana also dictated the game’s pace, as it has in three of the four meetings this season.

According to the NBA’s Advanced Stats, Game 1 had 98 possessions — an especially high number for a playoff game and one that includes the Knicks, who ranked last in pace during the regular season (95.96).

This style of play suits the Pacers because they can turn to their bench and still not miss a beat.

Indiana’s reserves scored 46 points in the game compared to just three for the Knicks, whose bench ranked second-to-last in minutes during the regular season and holds the same position during the playoffs.

Knicks analysis

The Knicks are 2-2 against Indiana this season.

The average pace in the three regular-season meetings was 99.83 possessions per 48 minutes. Against the spread in those games, they own a 1-3 mark.

The Pacers are far from one of the better defensive teams in the league. They rank 24th in efficiency, with 117.6 points allowed per 100 possessions.

However, they use an interesting strategy to ensure opposing teams play more to their style.

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Indiana is putting pressure on ball handlers as they dribble up the court. As a result, their opponents cross the half-court line much quicker, forcing them to get into their offense much earlier.

This constant pressure often results in more turnovers that can help trigger the Pacers’ transition offense. The Knicks committed 15 turnovers in the series opener, which the Pacers turned into 22 points. 

Thus, while the Pacers aren’t known for their defensive prowess, there are still facets of their game that can be problematic for the Knicks.

Prediction

The Knicks are playing a dangerous game if they continue to let Indiana dictate the game’s pace. 

Defense has been one of their biggest strengths, but they can’t seem to slow down the Pacers, even in a game where Tyrese Haliburton finished with just six points on 2-of-6 shooting.

The Pacers’ point guard is simply too good to have such a quiet night again.

In both Knicks wins against Indiana this season, Jalen Brunson scored 40 or more points, including 43 in Game 1.

Betting on the NBA?

The Pacers’ strategy should be pretty straightforward: Slow Brunson down and let someone else beat you.

While that’s undoubtedly easier said than done, it’s their best option at this point. 

Look for the Pacers to make some adjustments in Game 2, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Pascal Siakam, one of Indiana’s better defenders, plays an increased role in defending Brunson.

With the style of play primarily favoring Indiana in these meetings, the visitors offer a ton of upside as five-point underdogs.

BET: Pacers +5 (-110, DraftKings)