Knicks vs. Rockets prediction: NBA odds, picks, best bets Monday

The Knickerbockers will try to remain perfect on their road trip when they visit the Rockets on Monday. 

Back-to-back wins in Miami and Detroit improved the Knicks record to 3-2, two games behind the Celtics in the Atlantic division.

Notwithstanding their loss in the season opener when they allowed 132 points to the Celtics, the Knicks’ defense has been on par with what we saw in the second half of last season when they landed OG Anunoby.

They’ll have another chance to flex their defensive muscles against a Rockets unit that might need to endure some growing pain as it tries to transition into more of a perimeter shooting team in the second year of Ime Udoka’s head coaching tenure.

Knicks vs Rockets Odds

Knicks vs Rockets Prediction

(8:45 p.m. ET, SCHN)

New York Knicks Betting Preview 

With only five games in the books thus far for the Knicks, it’s no surprise that Boston’s lopsided victory would have a massive effect on the visitor’s defensive rating. 

The Celtics launched a barrage of 3-pointers (61), making 29 perimeter shots while shooting 47.5% from beyond the arc. 

It was one of those nights that Boston seemingly couldn’t miss, and you’re almost resigned to simply turning the page to the next game.

Since then, the Knicks have had much better luck defensively, ranking fourth in opponent 3-point percentage (30.7%) and second in three-point field goals (10.8).

While your opponent’s profile does play a role in determining the kind of success you have defensively on the perimeter, the Knicks give themselves a chance by ranking in the top half of contested 3-point shots (15.5).

As a result, the Knicks’ Defensive Rating has improved from 113.3 to 105.9 since the opener.

Houston Rockets Betting Preview

It was a relatively quiet offseason for the Rockets, as they opted to re-sign free agent Aaron Holiday to a one-year contract with a team option.

They also exercised options on veterans Jeff Green ($8 million) and Jae’Sean Tate ($ 7.6 million), then guaranteed Jock Landale‘s $8 million salary.

Those expiring contracts could be helpful should Houston plan to be aggressive at the trade deadline.

Flexibility will be particularly crucial for the Rockets, as they’ll have to decide whether to extend Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun, who are both in the final year of their rookie contracts.

They’ll also need to navigate a looming third-year option on Fred VanVleet’s $130 million deal.

While the Rockets might very well be in a bit of a transition, their decision to select Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard with the third overall pick might signal a shift in strategy.

Sheppard was easily the best shooter in the 2024 NBA Draft, knocking down 52.1% of his 3-point attempts (4.4 per game) in college. 

We’re now seeing the Rockets increase their 3-point attempts from 36.1 to 40.5 per game, but the added volume has resulted in a lower 3-point percentage from 35.2 to 33.3%.

Knicks vs Rockets pick

Interestingly, the Rockets remain 23rd in 3-point percentage compared to last season, and they’re playing at an even slower tempo. 

Houston averages more than two fewer possessions per game (99.59 to 97.31), dropping from 13th to 28th in pace.

Given the Rockets’ struggles from the perimeter, if they use more of the shot clock to hunt for 3-pointers, then we’ll likely see a decline in their scoring.

Betting on the NBA?

When you combine that logic with the Knicks’ improved perimeter defense, there’s value in playing the Rockets team total under 107.5 points.

Pick: Rockets team total under 107.5 points (-104, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.