Know thy enemy: New York Knicks

This is the first in a series of articles previewing the Celtics’ likeliest challengers to the throne.

The greatest form of flattery is watching opponents tailor their rosters specifically to beat you.

From the Harden Rockets trying to math the Warriors dynasty into submission in the late 2010s to the Minnesota Timberwolves realizing that size was the pickaxe needed to mine the Nuggets, teams have become more aggressive about constructing a roster designed specifically to beat the top dog in their conference.

Nobody has been more blatant about forming a Celtics Killer than the New York Knicks.

Last season’s Knicks were a very good team ultimately undone by injuries. Their new roster, bolstered by the summer’s trade for Mikal Bridges, was remade to battle Boston.

Let’s start with the likely depth chart.

PG: Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride, Cam Payne

SG: Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo

SF: OG Anunoby, Josh Hart

PF: Julius Randle, Keita Bates-Diop

C: Mitchell Robinson, Precious Achiuwa, Jericho Sims

Although the Celtics won last regular season’s series 4-1 last season, they rarely saw the Knicks at full strength. New York’s one win was the only game Anunoby participated in, and this year’s team will be better equipped to fight Boston.

The Knicks have a ton of wing depth, an obvious response to the Celtics attack, but is it possible to have too much of a good thing? As good as Mikal Bridges is, I’m not sure he’s as snug a fit for the Knicks offensively as Donte DiVincenzo, who had a case as the second-best three-pointer shooter in the league last season. You don’t trade the farm for a player like Bridges without playing him monster minutes (and his iron-man status will immediately endear him to coach Tom Thibodeau), but watching how the Knicks fit DiVincenzo (their best shooter by a Brooklyn Bridge length) into the rotation will be interesting.

Brunson was an All-NBA player last year, and he was able to find success at times against the Celtics’ vaunted defensive backcourt, dropping 34 and 39 points in the last two meetings on efficient shooting.

Randle, the Knicks’ second-best player (by box-score production, at least), has typically struggled against the Celtics. There’s a sense that his bruising power game could take advantage of a slimmer Boston frontline, but that hasn’t translated to reality yet.

Their biggest hole is at the biggest position. The Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson is a decent center, but he’s constantly injured. Losing Isaiah Hartenstein to the OKC Thunder leaves a Kool-Aid-man-sized gap on the roster, as Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims will be overtaxed as the primary backups. The Knicks still have some trade ammo left to fortify their front court, so I’d expect them to add a high-quality backup before the trade deadline.

Strengths

The Knicks, as a whole, have two significant strengths going for them against the Celtics. One, no team in the league will better be able to match up with the Jays (although that may be more complicated than people assume, as it means putting either Julius Randle or NY’s center on one of Boston’s guards — a move Boston saw plenty of last year and knows how to exploit). Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can’t be completely stopped, but Anunoby and Bridges have the best chance in the league of slowing them. It’ll be up to Jrue Holiday or Derrick White to take advantage of what should be a vulnerable matchup.

Here’s something weird: despite their 1-4 record, the Knicks actually had the third-best offensive rating against the Celtics! No, I wouldn’t have guessed that either, but it wasn’t because they shot exceptionally well. Instead, the Knicks put their full weight into their greatest strength: offensive rebounding.

The Knicks were the best offensive rebounding team in the league, but they amped up their boarding to a preposterous amount against Boston. They mopped up 38.0% of their misses, nearly six percentage points more than their league-best 32.2% regular-season rate. It’s hard to overstate how absurd that number is.

Randle, Robinson, and Hart ensure that at least two elite window-wipers are on the floor at all times. Boston was a perfectly decent defensive rebounding team last year, but this is the one statistical edge New York should cleanly have over the Celtics, even if they take a small step back without Hartenstein. Although Boston’s defense should hold up well against New York’s first-shot offense, the Celtics must emphasize protecting the glass.

Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

Weaknesses

Despite what I said above, New York may still have problems scoring against Boston. Randle, in particular, will have to figure out how to get buckets more efficiently — he shot just 34% against Boston in his three matches last year. He’s also struggled in his playoff minutes, in general. Bridges’ presence adds a desperately needed tertiary playmaking element to New York, but it remains to be seen how much incremental benefit that has for an offense built around bully ball and Jalen Brunson’s pitter-patters into the paint.

Between Bridges, Anunoby, DiVincenzo, and Brunson, the Knicks have surprisingly reliable shooting. But praying for long-range fireworks is rarely a sustainable strategy over a seven-game series (let’s forget about that Miami-Boston series a few years ago, shall we?).

And with the Knicks, health is always a concern. Center depth, in particular, is a huge problem right now. If Randle or Brunson is even slightly hobbled, there simply isn’t enough creation on this team to beat a defense as well-rounded as Boston’s.

Final thoughts

The scariest version of the Knicks might place Anunoby or Randle at center, something they toyed with an eensy-teensy bit last season. Tom Thibodeau’s willingness to get weird might determine their chances.

The Knicks’ revamped defense could trouble Boston (as much as anyone can, anyway). Still, despite their rebounding prowess, New York should have even greater problems scoring consistently against the Celtics. At the end of the day, I’d expect them to fall short (although Boston may escape battered and bruised).

In some ways, I look forward to a Boston-New York series more than anything else. Brown and Tatum must elevate their games to overcome the Anunoby/Bridges duo. Nothing creates basketball art quite like high-level offense overcoming snarling defense, and I’d love to watch the Jays swish their paintbrushes around.

Looking ahead, the Knicks should be around in this iteration for several years. Even though I firmly have Boston in front of New York for this season, the Knicks may be a bigger threat in the following years, when Boston will likely have to shed some salary. But that’s a problem for future Celtics; for now, Boston must maintain their discipline on the glass to prove me right.