Liberty vs. Lynx Game 3 prediction: WNBA Finals odds, picks, best bets

Minnesota stole Game 1 of the WNBA Finals on the road behind a historic and heroic 15-point comeback in the final five minutes.

However, the Liberty came out red-hot in the first quarter of Game 2 to take a commanding lead over the Lynx and win, tying the series 1-1.

What can we expect in Game 3 on Wednesday night at Target Center? Will the Liberty be able to flip home court back in their favor, or can the Lynx inch one game closer to a championship?

Here’s our preview of Game 3 (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) with a prediction and pick.

WNBA Finals: Liberty vs. Lynx Game 3 odds

WNBA Finals: Liberty vs. Minnesota Game 3 prediction

After a horrendous shooting performance in Game 1, the Liberty bounced back in Game 2, knocking down roughly 48% of their field goal attempts and 46% of their 3-point attempts.

That sort of efficiency is not sustainable against a Lynx team that ranked first in opponent effective field goal percentage and had the second-lowest (best) defensive rating during the regular season. 

However, what is sustainable is the dominance that we have seen from the Liberty on the glass.

They have outrebounded Minnesota by an average of 9.5 boards per game, which will continue to be an issue for the Lynx.

The Liberty have reached double-digit offensive rebounds in Games 1 and 2, crushing the Lynx in second-chance points. In short, Sandra Brondello’s team won’t need to shoot that well from the floor to stave off Minnesota.

The Liberty also did a phenomenal job of limiting the amount of shots that Napheesa Collier was able to get up.

No player this postseason has been as consistently dominant and efficient as Collier, but holding her to 12 field goal attempts is a massive win. If they can do that again, their chances of winning on the road will skyrocket.

Collier took more than 12 shots in every game this season in which she was on the floor for at least 30 minutes, so the Liberty will again be focused on keeping the ball out of her hands and forcing other players to beat them.

Another focus, which was evident in Game 2, was contesting Minnesota’s 3s, even if it meant getting beat off the dribble.

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WNBA Finals: Liberty vs. Lynx Game 3 pick

The Liberty are not concerned with Minnesota’s interior play, as the Lynx finished last in points in the paint this season. 

With Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart giving them a distinct size advantage in the front court, the Liberty will continue to lean on that for the rest of the series.

Ultimately, the Liberty’s perfectly executed plan in Game 2 gives us confidence in laying 3.5 points with them on the road.

Pick: Liberty -3.5 (-110, DraftKings)

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Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.