Liberty vs. Lynx Game 4 prediction: WNBA Finals odds, picks, best bets

The WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx has already been one of the greatest matchups in the league’s history. 

From the Lynx’s 15-point comeback in Game 1 to Sabrina Ionescu’s step-back, game-winning 3-pointer in Game 3 (which also required a 15-point comeback), this knock-down, drag-out duel has been everything we could have hoped for.

Up 2-1 in the series after losing the best-of-five opener, the Liberty have put the Lynx on the brink of elimination. 

Here is a preview of Friday’s critical Game 4, with a prediction and our top betting play. 

WNBA Finals: Liberty vs. Lynx Game 4 odds

WNBA Finals: Liberty vs. Lynx Game 4 prediction

Ionescu’s 3-pointer with one second remaining in Game 3 will be talked about for years to come.

But Breanna Stewart’s spectacular second half is ultimately the reason that shot was able to happen. The Liberty forward combined to score 22 points over the third and fourth quarters, finishing with 30 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks in one of the all-time great WNBA Finals performances.

Now, it’s a do-or-die situation for the Lynx on their home floor in Game 4, and we’re targeting the first-quarter total, which is still strangely low at 40.5 points.

These teams have gone over this projection in all seven of their regular-season and playoff matchups in 2024. The first-quarter average in those games has been 48 points.

In all playoff games this season, the Liberty have shot 53.7% from the floor, 45% from 3-point land and 90.5% from the free throw line, while Minnesota has boasted a 51/41/87 split.

And the Liberty and Lynx have the two highest offensive ratings (103.5, 103.4) and true shooting percentages (66.1%, 60.5%) out of the eight teams to make the playoffs.

Further, despite their reputations as two of the best defensive teams in the W, they have not locked opponents down in the first quarter of playoff games.

In the postseason, Liberty starters have allowed opponents to hit 49% of their field goal attempts and 42.4% of their 3-pointers in the first quarter, while Minnesota’s opponents have knocked down 46.7% of their shots from the floor.

WNBA Finals: Liberty vs. Lynx Game 4 pick

First-quarter defense has not been a forte for either one of these teams throughout the playoffs, but they have been lighting it up from the field.

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It should be another high-scoring affair for both teams on Friday, particularly early on in the game.

Pick: 1Q over 40.5 points (-105, DraftKings)

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Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.