Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction: NHL odds, picks, best bets Monday

Monday’s lone NHL matchup spotlights two of the NHL’s most prolific goal scorers sharing a sheet of ice in Auston Matthews and Nikita Kucherov. 

Matthews and the Maple Leafs have gotten off to a lethargic offensive start in contrast to their usual bounteous production. The league’s leading goal scorer over the past eight seasons is tied for second in points on Toronto’s roster with a total of four. 

The Maple Leafs’ power play appears rusty, converting at a 12.5 percent rate through four games, but their strong five-on-five play steered them to winning three.

According to Moneypuck, the Maple Leafs are churning the eighth-highest expected goals rate in the game thus far. 

I’m looking for Toronto’s stars to positively regress Monday as its newly appointed captain and Mitch Marner have both averaged at least one point per game against the Lightning in their careers. 

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds

On the opposing bench, Kucherov’s scorching start is smashing franchise records. He’s No. 1 overall with seven goals through four games, a feat that made him the first Lightning player in history to start a season with such volume on the scoresheet. 

Historically, Kucherov makes his dough on the power play, so it’s especially polarizing that only two of his nine points have come via the man-advantage, speaking to the Lightning’s excelled five-on-five status.

Along with the Maple Leafs, they hold a five-on-five goal differential of six or higher — slotting both clubs in the top three ranks entering play Sunday. 

Both Craig Berube and Jon Cooper mirror each other’s structures by utilizing elite talent to execute quick transition games and sustaining pressure in the offensive zone. 

Betting on the NHL?

These familiar Atlantic Division foes have topped the Over on goal totals with a line of 6.5 in eight of 11 regular season meetings throughout the previous three seasons. 

Let’s look for the heap of awards won between both of these rosters to validate themselves with another barn burner. 

THE PLAY: Over 6.5 Goals (-112, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.