Lions vs. Cowboys prediction: NFL Week 6 odds, picks, best bets

Two NFC titans will clash on Sunday when the Detroit Lions head to Dallas for a matchup with the Cowboys.

Both teams are riding winning streaks of two games and could use another win to avoid dropping further behind their respective division leaders.

Even though they’ve beaten the Lions in six straight matchups, the Cowboys find themselves as three-point home underdogs.

The 52-point total is the highest in Week 6 and one of only two games over 49.

Here’s our prediction and pick for Sunday’s Lions vs. Cowboys matchup (4:25 p.m., FOX).

Lions vs. Cowboys odds

Lions vs. Dallas prediction

You have to hand it to the Cowboys.

They didn’t just roll over after dropping two of their first three games, including an embarrassing 25-point home loss to New Orleans.

Instead, Dallas squeezed out two hard-fought road victories against a Giants team that has performed above expectations and the defensive-centric Steelers.

However, this is one of those awful, unavoidable matchups for the Cowboys that will make it extraordinarily challenging for them to walk away with a win, even at home. 

Dallas has been one of the worst teams in defending the run this season, receiving Pro Football Focus’ lowest run grade through five weeks, and allowing opponents to run for the ninth-most yards per game in the NFL.

While the Cowboys made some improvements in this area over their last two games, it came against two of PFF’s five lowest-graded run teams.

Their challenge this week will be trying to limit one of the league’s best running back duos in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Good luck.

The Lions have been dominant in the trenches, holding opponents to the fourth-lowest rushing yards per game and boasting the fifth-highest run grade, fourth-highest run-blocking grade and the sixth-highest pass-blocking grade (PFF).

At some point, we should also expect Jared Goff to resemble the player he has been over the last two seasons. This could be the spot.

Goff has struggled through four games, but his offensive line should give him plenty of time against an injury-riddled Cowboys defense that will likely miss Micah Parsons, Eric Kendricks, DeMarcus Lawrence and Marshawn Kneeland.

Meanwhile, the Lions’ pass rush has been phenomenal, which will be a problem for the banged-up Cowboys’ offensive line.

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All-Pro guard Zack Martin has been a DNP at practice this week with a back injury and is in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game. If that’s the case, Prescott will likely be on the run.

Lions vs. Dallas pick

While Goff’s struggles are noted above, Sunday will be played indoors on turf, where he has historically thrived and is 38-18 ATS the last four seasons, per Action Network.

He’s also coming off of extended rest where he owns the NFL’s best ATS mark (14-4) since 2020, including seven straight covers.

As a road favorite, Goff is 6-1 ATS since the start of last season.

It’s a bad matchup and situation for the Cowboys, especially given all of their recent injuries. I’ll take Detroit in this spot.

Pick: Lions -3 (-112, DraftKings)

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Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.