Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 1 predictions: NBA odds, picks, best bets

The Thunder host the Mavericks in Game 1 of an NBA Western Conference semifinal series on Tuesday night. 

Oklahoma City opened as a 3.5-point home favorite, and based on our Action Network Public Betting data, the ticket count is 50/50. Thus, the market is split on which side to pick in this matchup.

However, while the point spread has remained unchanged since opening at 3.5, the total increased from 214.5 to 218.5. 

Based on that move, the assumption is that we’ll see the Thunder play at a pace similar to what we saw during the regular season. 

However, that’s too aggressive of a stance, given what we’ve seen from OKC during these playoffs. 

In this preview, I’ll share why we shouldn’t be so quick to trust that move and how bettors can profit from targeting the one prop that could be key in determining the winner of this series.

Mavericks vs. Thunder odds

Mavericks analysis 

If you simply looked at the Mavericks’ 1-3 record and minus-27 point differential against the Thunder this season, you might think they’d be a heavy underdog in this matchup. However, this series is essentially a pick’em with Dallas at even money and the Thunder a -120 favorite.

A closer look reveals that the Mavericks were missing at least one key player in each of the three losses. 

In the first loss (126-120), point guard Kyrie Irving didn’t play due to a foot injury. In the second loss (126-119), the Mavericks were without Luka Doncic.

The two teams then met on the final day of the regular season, with OKC winning 135-86. But with the Mavericks already locked into the fifth seed, it was a meaningless game, so they opted not to play any of their starters.

Thus, there’s a bit of intrigue with this series because there’s an element of the unknown of what we can expect, especially considering that the Mavericks also reshaped their team at the trade deadline by acquiring power forward P.J. Washington and center Daniel Gafford. Both players bolstered the Mavericks’ frontcourt while improving their defense on the wing and inside the paint.

Dallas went from 22nd in defensive efficiency (117.2) to eighth (110.5) and from 17th in net rating (+0.2) to the sixth-best mark at +5.4. 

Moreover, their presence allows the Mavericks to control the glass better in their games. Since their arrival, their rebounding improved from 25th (41.5 per game) to sixth (45.4) after the trade deadline.

Thunder analysis

There’s no trickery with how the Thunder want to play basketball. OKC prefers to push the pace as much as possible, ranking fifth in tempo during the regular season with 100.85 possessions per 48 minutes. 

However, during the first-round series against the Pelicans, the average pace dropped to 95.88 over the four games. And despite ultimately sweeping New Orleans, the OKC offense wasn’t as fluid, considering its efficiency dropped from 118.3 in the 82-game season to 109.6 in the first round.

While OKC maintained some of its strengths, such as perimeter shooting and scoring on the fastbreak, it didn’t get as many easy looks inside the paint, dropping from 52.5 in the regular season to 44 in the series.

Due to its lack of size, the Thunder can be particularly vulnerable at rebounding, ranking 27th (42 RPG) in that category. If you can’t control the glass in the playoffs when there are often fewer possessions, it’s much more difficult to dictate the tempo.

To compensate for its lack of rebounding, OKC tries to generate pace by forcing turnovers to trigger fastbreak opportunities. That strategy was largely successful against the Pelicans, who committed a playoff-worst 18 turnovers per game.

Yet, even with that success, the tempo was still slow by OKC’s standards, with three of the four games in the series staying under the total. And while Dallas does tend to play a bit faster, forcing the Thunder to rely on its halfcourt offense could help expose a weakness within the team.

Mavericks vs. Thunder picks

While the Thunder are not an elite rebounding unit, they do a decent job sharing the responsibility. 

OKC will be well aware of the Mavericks’ strengths on the glass, and I expect rebounding to be a big part of coach Mark Daigneault’s Game 1 preparations.

We can also get better numbers on rebounding props, considering that it’s a Thunder weakness and that the market projects a higher-scoring game.

As a result, a few rebounding props seem too low in what should be a competitive game.

Aaron Wiggins over 3.5 rebounds + assists (-120 at BetMGM)

There hasn’t been much dropoff in Wiggins’ minutes in the playoffs (15.0 minutes vs. 15.6 during the regular season). 

His recent playoff numbers (3.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists) are much better than his season average (2.4 rebounds and 1.1 assists), as he went over this prop in each game against the Pelicans.

Moreover, if you include the regular season, he’s exceeded this prop number in nine straight games.

Wiggins does a decent job getting his name on the stat sheet even in limited minutes, and if he’s not scoring points, look for him to contribute in other ways.

Chet Holmgren over 8.5 rebounds (-122 at DraftKings)

Holmgren averaged 8.8 rebounds in the first round and held his own against Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas. 

Oklahoma City doesn’t play with a traditional center, so Holmgren will be more responsible for doing his share against the Mavericks.

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At 7-foot-1, he should match up better against the Mavericks’ frontcourt players, considering they’re roughly 30 pounds lighter than Valanciunas, who tips the scale at 265.

In four games against the Mavericks, Holmgren averaged 10 rebounds, and if we get a slower-paced game, he should go over this prop with relative ease.