Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets for Monday

With 19 games remaining after seeing their nine-game winning streak snapped on Sunday, the Mets head to Toronto all square with Atlanta in the wild-card race.

The Mets are a slight betting favorite in Monday’s series opener (7:07 p.m. ET) as Tylor Megill is set to take on Chris Bassitt. 

Here is a breakdown of the matchup, along with a prediction and pick in what should be a high-scoring game.

Mets vs. Blue Jays odds

Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction

While the Blue Jays have been one of the least profitable betting sides in baseball this season, their new-look offense has quietly begun to put up steady results since the trade deadline, providing a tough matchup for Megill. 

Vladimir Guerrero’s dominance has stolen most of the headlines, but several other batters have also trended into better form down the stretch.

Consistent playing time for younger players such as rookie second baseman Spencer Horwitz has also led to improved offensive splits. 

Over the last month, Toronto ranks first with a wRC+ of 135 against right-handed pitching, and second in OPS at .831. The Jays rank eighth with a 0.50 BB/K in that span and eighth in hard-hit rate. 

Megill has made two starts since returning from a strong minor-league stint. He had an excellent outing versus the lowly White Sox but struggled his last time out versus Boston, allowing three runs across four innings.

In his last 35 2/3 innings, Megill has pitched to an ERA of 6.11, with an xFIP of 4.11 and a K-BB% of 15.6. He has been hard-hit 43% of the time in that span.

He is likely to have a short leash in Monday’s opener with the Mets’ bullpen in solid shape. It would make sense to see someone like Jose Butto enter the game once Megill has worked twice through the order. 

The Mets have confirmed that Jeff McNeil is set to miss the rest of the season, which leaves a meaningful hole in the lineup. Still, they should have a great chance of doing damage in a matchup versus the right-handed Bassitt.

Over the last month, the Mets have hit to a wRC+ of 112 against righties and hold the seventh-best hard-hit rate in that span. 

Bassitt has struggled to an ERA of 5.93 across his last 10 starts and has been hard-hit 40% of the time. He holds the lowest Pitching+ rating of his career (97) and has seen his chase and whiff rates drop significantly this season.

There are not a lot of established relievers left in the Jays’ bullpen, and the results have been as expected of late with an ERA of 4.35 and 4.21 xFIP over the last month. 

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Mets vs. Blue Jays pick

There looks to be a lot of ways this game could break open, with both offenses in great form and neither starter looking overly convincing.

A betting total of nine runs looks a touch too low, and I see value in backing the over at anything better than -120. 

Pick: Over 9 runs (-105, BetMGM)