Mets vs. Braves odds, picks: MLB predictions, best bets Wednesday

The Mets appeared to be in the driver’s seat heading into their series opener against the Braves.

The Mets had a half-game lead over Arizona and a two-game lead over Atlanta as the three teams hunt for the final two wild-card spots.

Unfortunately, a 5-1 loss Tuesday means the Braves are within one game of the Mets, while the Diamondbacks remain a half-game behind after they lost to the Giants later that night.

Things won’t get any easier in the next game, with the Braves sending Chris Sale to the mound while the Mets counter with David Peterson.

Atlanta has been a house of horror for decades for the Mets and that nightmare could very well continue Wednesday night.

Mets vs. Braves odds

Mets analysis

The Mets’ struggles in Atlanta were definitely on the mind of manager Carlos Mendoza when he met the media after Tuesday’s loss.

Mendoza acknowledged that the circumstances around his team’s loss seemed all too familiar.

“We didn’t play well,” Mendoza said. “We didn’t make a play a couple of times. We missed a cutoff man one time. We’ve got to turn the page. I know it is going to be a story because it is here in Atlanta. We’ve got to go out and do it.”

Dating back to the 2005 season, the Mets’ 73-100 road record against Atlanta is by far their worst compared to the other teams it faces inside the division.

Peterson has also had his share of struggles on the road against Atlanta, as the Mets are just 1-4 in his starts vs. 4-2 when he pitches at home.

In his 23 ⅔ innings on the road, he has a 6.85 ERA, with Braves batters hitting .284 with a .346 OBP and .495 SLG. 

Although Peterson is easily having his best year in the majors at 9-3 with a 3.08 ERA, you can almost put aside those numbers when it comes to him pitching on the road against the Braves.

Braves analysis

As good a year Peterson is having, it doesn’t come close to what we’re seeing from Sale in his 14th season.

At 18-3, the lanky southpaw is the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award. His 2.08 FIP suggests he’s pitched even better than his 2.38 ERA.

The most significant change we’ve seen with Sale is that he’s using his slider more than ever. He’s throwing the pitch 40.3% of the time, which is higher than his four-seam fastball usage (37.8%).

With his unique arm angle and release point as a left-hander, he gets tremendous tilt with his slider while generating a Whiff rate of 42.7%.

Thus, the Mets can expect to see plenty of sliders against Sale. They have a below-average run value of -21.2 when facing sliders, their worst mark against any pitch this season.

When you look at those numbers, it’s hard to argue against the Braves being as high as -195 favorites against the Mets.

Mets vs. Braves pick

It’s incredible how quickly things can turn around because the Mets were in a great position heading into this series with a two-game lead.

Now, they have to beat one of the best pitchers in baseball to avoid possibly falling into a tie.

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

Let’s go with Sale and the Braves on the -0.5 first five run line.

Sale is 3-0-1 against the Mets in this spot, while Peterson has failed to pitch past the fifth inning in his last three starts against Atlanta.

Best Bet: Brave F5 RL -0.5 (-125, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.