Mets vs. Braves prediction, odds: MLB best bets for heated Wild Card race

It’s been tough sledding in the National League wild-card race as a Braves team that has lost only one series in its last 12 sits two games out with six left to play. 

The Mets will try to preserve their ticket back to the postseason entering Tuesday’s series opener against their division foes as road underdogs.

The teams have split the season series, 5-5, and the winner of this series will have the critical tiebreaker should the teams finish with the same record.

The Mets enter this series two games ahead of Atlanta in the standings, with the Braves 1 1/2 games behind the Diamondbacks for the final playoff spot.

Luis Severino posted a five-inning no-decision in a 3-2 Mets victory over the Braves on July 25 at Citi Field, while his counterpart Spencer Schwellenbach carved through New York’s lineup with 11 strikeouts in a 4-0 shutout two days later. 

Severino, hot off back-to-back wins, is tasked with containing an Atlanta team that’s lunging forward with a top-10 slash line of .254/.326/.426 in September and is nine games above .500 at Truist Park in 2024. 

Mets vs. Braves prediction

Schwellenbach has emerged as a reliable depth option through a promising rookie season in the Braves rotation. In 19 starts, he has given up more than three earned runs four times. 

He walks hitters extremely seldom, carrying a red-hot 4.9 percent rate on his Statcast profile. 

The Mets chase pitches at a league average rate, but Schwellenbach’s strong arsenal — especially secondary pitches like his split finger fastball and curveball — is drawing swings on 32.5 of his pitches outside the zone, placing him in the top three percent of pitchers. 

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Context considered, I’m taking the rookie to prove more of his worth to a desperate and capable Braves team.

THE PLAY: Braves moneyline (-138, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.