Mets vs. Brewers Game 1 prediction: MLB Wild Card odds, picks, best bets

The Mets completed the comeback of a lifetime Monday when they overcame two deficits late in the first leg of a doubleheader to defeat the Atlanta Braves, 8-7, and advance to the postseason.

However, the Mets will have to battle some fatigue, given the quick turnaround to Tuesday’s Game 1 of the National League wild-card series in Milwaukee.

It won’t help that they’ll face a Brewers team that dominated the season series, winning five of the six games, including two of three last weekend.

More importantly, the Mets have yet to figure out Milwaukee’s starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta, who emerged as the staff’s ace after last year’s announcement that Brandon Woodruff would miss the entire season with a shoulder injury.

Mets vs. Brewers Game 1 odds

2024 was already a success for Severino

While expectations will be high for the Mets starter Luis Severino, this couldn’t be a more challenging spot for him.

The Mets signed Severino on a one-year deal worth $13 million to help fill the rotation. Had Severino pitched well enough last year in 19 appearances (18 starts) for the Yankees (4-8, 6.65 ERA), he never would have hit the free-agent market.

Thus, his performance this year (11-7, 3.91 ERA) in 31 starts suggests he still has a quality arm to help a major-league staff.

This season has already been a success for Severino and his quest for another long-term contract. There isn’t anything he can do in the postseason to damage that.

The biggest surprise is that he’s now striking out fewer batters per nine innings (K/9) despite averaging around 96.2 mph on his fastball.  

FanGraphs lists his 7.96 K/9 ratio as the lowest of his nine-year career. 

Since last year, he’s increased the use of his sinker from 2.8% to 24.8%, but Milwaukee’s lineup is scoring 7.1 runs above league average when facing the pitch.

His head-to-head numbers against this Brewers roster also aren’t great, as they’re hitting .333 with a .406 wOBA and .459 xSLG in 48 plate appearances.

Peralta looks to continue his dominance

If we turn to Peralta, his 10.36 K/9 ratio suggests he’s elite at missing bats. 

He’s had a steady development in his seven years with the Brewers, increasing his fastball velocity to more than 94 mph while complementing the heater (53.9%) with a slider (21.7%), a changeup (17.5%) and a curveball (7.0%).

What’s impressive about Peralta is that despite his varied usage, he has the confidence to throw any pitch in his arsenal at any time. All four of his pitches have a putaway rate of at least 19%, with the curveball being the highest at 24.4%.

His slider could be handy against a Mets team that’s 21.5 runs below average when facing the pitch.

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This Mets’ roster has struggled mightily against Peralta, hitting just .200 in 83 plate appearances.

According to the Action Network, the Metropolitans are 0-3 against the Brewers right-hander and outscored 21-5 in those games.

With Milwaukee only a -142 favorite at FanDuel, I can only look to the home side for Game 1 in this wild-card matchup.

Best bet: Brewers ML (-142, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.