Mets vs. Brewers prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets for Friday

Thanks to Hurricane Helen, the Mets are staring down a horrific scheduling situation.

Because they had back-to-back games postponed this week, they are forced to play a doubleheader on Monday in Atlanta.

A potential wild-card series would then start for them on Tuesday, less than 24 hours from the finish of the second game.

The travel would be taxing, and burning quality arms in Monday’s matchups with playoff games the following three days would also be disastrous. 

As the Mets (87-70) begin their three-game series in Milwaukee on Friday, they find themselves one game up on the Braves (86-71) in the NL wild-card race and in a virtual tie with the Diamondbacks (88-71), who have played more games.

Mets vs. Brewers odds

Mets vs. Brewers prediction

With the Padres having wrapped up the top wild card, that leaves the Mets, Diamondbacks and Braves vying for the final two spots in the National League. Here is where the tiebreakers stand entering Friday’s play:

• The Mets and Braves both win tiebreakers against the Diamondbacks.
• Atlanta currently has the tiebreaker over the Mets with a 6-5 record in the series with Monday’s doubleheader remaining.

There are realistic scenarios in which the Mets could clinch before Monday’s doubleheader. Of course, that would be very beneficial, but those scenarios include winning at least two of three games against the Brewers. 

The Mets have a good opportunity to win Friday’s game in Milwaukee with left-hander Sean Manaea on the mound to face veteran right-hander Frankie Montas.

Manaea has helped power the Mets midseason turnaround with a dominant stretch of play. He was solid again in a critical win over the Phillies in his last outing.

In 81 2/3 innings since the All-Star break, Manaea has pitched to an ERA of 3.09, with a WHIP of just 0.87. He has an ERA of 2.36 in his last five starts, holding opponents to a batting average of just .133.

His underlying numbers throughout those outings are also strong (3.56 xFIP, .204 xBA). 

Opponents are hitting just .198 against him this season, which ranks third among qualified starters behind only Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler and Houston’s Ronel Blanco.

Montas has struggled to a 5.49 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star break.

In his last five starts, he owns an ERA of 5.81, a K-BB% of 21.2 and a .231 xBA.

In that span, he has a 67.5% strand rate and has allowed a 23.3% HR/FB in those starts. His Pitching+ rating of 101 is also better than league average. 

The Mets’ offense has been more effective of late than the Brewers, and should be fielding close to their top lineup with only Jeff McNeil unavailable for Friday’s matchup. 

Over the last month, the Mets have hit to a wRC+ of 108, compared to the Brewers’ 93.

The Mets have also hit a wRC+ of 107 in 1,740 plate appearances versus righties in the second half of the season, while in the same span, Milwaukee has a wRC+ of 97 against left-handed pitching. 

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Mets vs. Brewers pick

Though these games are technically meaningless for Milwaukee, don’t expect Pat Murphy club to simply go through the motions on Friday or in this series as they would love to force the Mets to play meaningful games on Monday, as well as enter the playoffs in strong form. 

So while we should still expect the Brewers to bring their A-game on Friday night, there still looks to be value backing the Mets at -130 with Manaea on the mound. 

Pick: Mets moneyline (-115, BetMGM)