Mets vs. Cubs prediction, odds: Monday’s MLB best bets, picks

The Mets caught fire for a quick stretch but have quickly cooled off, losing five of their past seven games. 

However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see get them back on track behind starting pitcher Luis Severino, who looks rejuvenated this year. 

And I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is. 

Cubs vs. Mets odds

Cubs vs. Mets prediction

(7:10 p.m. ET, SNY)

Following a career-worst season with the Yankees in 2023 (6.65 ERA across 90 innings), Severino boasts a sparkling profile through five starts in a Mets uniform.

He’s pitched at least five innings in every appearance with a 2.67 ERA. 

Severino’s improvements have come from an adjusted pitch mix. He’s added a sinker and a sweeper, which have driven a considerable increase in his ground-ball rate (42% in 2023, 58% in 2024). 

Meanwhile, his slightly moderated fastball usage has helped him avoid the four-seam disaster that was his 2023. Opponents slugged .692 on the pitch last season, but that number is down to .267. 

We should expect some negative regression for Severino, whose expected ERA is 3.60. Still, the early results are encouraging. 

And Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon is due for much more negative regression. 

Taillon’s 1.69 ERA is buoyed by a low .273 BABIP and an uber-high 85% strand rate. Once those numbers regress toward MLB averages (.300 and 70%), Taillon’s ERA should regress closer to his expected FIP (4.23). 

The Cubs likely boast the better lineup, but much of their success has been against left-handed pitching (136 wRC+, second in MLB). Against right-handed pitchers, the Mets have surprisingly been the slightly better lineup by wRC+ (102 to 96) and wOBA (.313 to .309). 

Of greater importance, the Mets’ bullpen is lights out, ranking second among relief staffs in FIP (2.90) and WAR (1.9). Edwin Diaz’s (0.93 ERA, four saves) return has helped, but breakout campaigns from Reed Garrett (0.61 ERA), Jorge Lopez (1.35 ERA) and Jake Diekman (3.86 ERA) have made the unit deep and impenetrable. 

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Meanwhile, the Cubs sport a 4.68 relief ERA and a -0.4 relief WAR, both bottom-10 marks among MLB relief corps. 

The Mets should have a considerable advantage in the later innings Monday. 

Finally, I always like fading teams directly after playing on Sunday Night Baseball.

The Cubs played an uncharacteristic Sunday night game in Boston and then traveled overnight to Queens to prepare for this Monday night battle. It’s a weird situational spot that doesn’t occur often, and I usually see the bats are a bit slower following this unique turnaround. 

Therefore, I’ll be betting on the Mets, who I believe have significant pitching, hitting and rest advantages Monday night at Citi Field. 

Cubs vs. Mets pick

Mets ML (-148, DraftKings)