Mets vs. Dodgers Game 1 prediction: NLCS odds, picks, best bets

The Mets and Dodgers capped off their respective NLDS series with shutdown pitching from start to finish, allowing a collective three runs throughout the final four games.

The Mets arrive in Los Angeles for the NLCS following four days of rest, and the pendulum should only swing back in the other direction. 

Mets vs. Dodgers Game 1 odds

Mets vs. Dodgers Game 1 prediction

In Game 1 on Sunday, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza has opted to start Kodai Senga, who was sidelined throughout the entire regular season aside from one appearance in July because of both a shoulder and calf strain.

As a conservative approach to his transition back into the rotation, Mendoza used Senga for just two innings in Game 1 against the Phillies, then leaned on the bullpen to carry the rest of the heavy lifting. 

We can expect that same strategy from the Mets’ skipper on Sunday at Dodgers Stadium. Starting Tuesday in Game 2, Mendoza is saving the top of his rotation for deeper chapters against a combustible Los Angeles lineup. 

Despite stellar pitching in its last 18 innings, the Mets’ bullpen holds the worst playoff ERA (4.01) of the four remaining teams. 

Dave Roberts will deploy veteran Jack Flaherty, the right-hander who was taken yard twice in the 10-2 loss to the Padres in the previous series. 

Flaherty, a key trade-deadline acquisition to boost an injury-ravaged rotation at the time, has relinquished 3.38 home runs per nine innings since joining the Dodgers in late July. 

Dodgers Stadium is one of the game’s friendliest venues to the longball; it showcased the second-most home runs this season at 122. 

Also, remember that when the Mets last visited in April, there were at least 10 total runs scored in all three games. 

Mets vs. Dodgers Game 1 pick

Oddsmakers are surely accounting for some of these nuggets with a line shooting up to the common regular-season mark of 8.5 runs on the total.

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Let’s treat this as such and snag considerable value on an October fireworks show.

Pick: Over 8.5 runs (+105, ESPN Bet)

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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.