Mets vs. Nationals prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets for Tuesday

The Mets will continue their final homestand of the season on Tuesday, hoping to keep pace with the Braves in the NL wild-card race.

While the Mets received positive news on MVP candidate Francisco Lindor’s MRI, he was unable to play in Monday’s win over the Nationals and is expected to remain out of the lineup on Tuesday.

Even without Lindor, the Mets are a heavy favorite to win Tuesday’s matchup as Washington’s Mitchell Parker faces Tylor Megill.

I’ll break down the matchup and offer a prediction and pick for Game 2 of Nationals vs. Mets. First, let’s take a look at the latest odds.

Nationals vs. Mets odds

Nationals vs. Mets prediction

Parker began the season in great form, posting a 3.34 ERA in his first 14 starts, but he has since fallen off considerably.

Since July 1, the Nationals left-hander has pitched to a 5.37 ERA and 4.24 xFIP across 63 2/3 innings. He holds a Stuff+ of 88 in that span and a Pitching+ of 97.

He has also struggled mightily away from Nationals Park this season, with a 6.25 road ERA, a 1.61 WHIP and a K-BB% of 10.8.

Parker was excellent last time out versus the Marlins and was also dominant versus the Rockies on Aug. 21.

However, those lineups have hit wRC+ scores of 61 and 50, respectively, over the last month, and now he takes on the Mets, who have been dominant against left-handed pitching.

Over the last month, they hold a wRC+ of 117 against lefties. They also hold a third-best hard-hit rate versus left-handers and the sixth-best BB/K ratio.  

The Mets’ current situation has allowed manager Carlos Mendoza a good opportunity to get promising youngster Luisangel Acuña in the lineup for a few games.

The Nationals also had some key absences Monday as CJ Abrams did not start, while Alex Call remained sidelined. Abrams was available off of the bench, however, and could return Tuesday.

Call was hitting .368 versus righties with a .971 OPS, so his absence certainly makes life a little easier for Megill. Over the last month, the Nationals hold a 20th-ranked wRC+ against right-handed pitching with an OPS of .685.

In three starts since a tune-up in the minors, Megill has posted a 2.35 ERA and 2.99 xFIP. He has struck out 10.57 batters per nine innings over that span and holds a Pitching+ of 108.

The Mets’ bullpen, which projects as the better of the two units, holds a 3.50 ERA over the last month compared to the Nationals’ mark of 4.04.

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Nationals vs. Mets pick

This sets up as a good spot to buy on Megill as he takes on a scuffling Nationals offense, while the Mets should make a good candidate to take advantage of Parker’s ugly results on the road.

At anything better than +135, I see value in backing the Mets to cover the run line on Tuesday.

Pick: Mets -1.5 (+135, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.