Mets vs. Phillies prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets Friday

The Mets kept pace with the Braves once again Thursday, as they won their fourth straight matchup with another strong offensive showing. 

For the second time this week, Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies will battle against David Peterson.

Both starters were excellent in Sunday’s matchup in Philadelphia.

Sanchez allowed just six hits and one earned run across seven innings, while Peterson allowed only four hits and one earned run over 7 1/3 IP.

Those outings are particularly impressive when you consider just how excellent both of these sides have been against left-handed pitching this season.

Phillies vs. Mets odds

Phillies vs. Mets prediction

The Mets have hit to a third-best wRC+ of 128 versus left-handed pitching since Aug. 1 and rank second in season-long splits. 

Not having Francisco Lindor’s .879 OPS against lefties certainly hurts. Luisangel Acuna’s excellent play has helped to mitigate that loss though, potentially to the point that he is forcing Carlos Mendoza’s hand on some tough lineup decisions once Lindor is healthy.

In 557 PA’s against left-handed pitchers since the All-Star break, the Phillies have hit to a wRC+ of 133 with an OPS of .836, which rank first in baseball respectively.

They have the fourth-highest BB/K ratio in that span and rank first in hard-hit rate by a wide margin (40.3%).

Peterson has remained in great form with a 2.22 ERA over his last five starts. He holds a more modest underlying profile though in that span though, including an xFIP of 4.00, a 41% hard-hit rate and a .256 xBA.

He holds an average Stuff+ rating of 93 in that span, and has struck-out only 6.96 batters per nine. 

Sanchez has pitched to a 2.27 ERA across his last 31 and 2/3 innings and features a more convincing underlying profile.

He holds an xFIP of 2.74 in that span and has struck out 9.66 batters per nine. Pitching models are also higher on Sanchez, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 106 and a Pitching+ rating of 110. 

Sanchez did allow hard contact 53% of the time Sunday versus the Mets though, and had some favorable luck on balls in-play to have such a dominant outing. 

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Phillies vs. Mets pick

This game features a high-quality pitching matchup to be sure, but it’s a tall order asking two left-handed starters to shut down these offenses in back-to-back matchups.

The total is low at 7.5, and I think it is one that gives a little too much respect to Friday’s starters.

Bet the over at anything better than -125. 

Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-105, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.