Mets vs. Phillies prediction, odds: MLB picks, best bets

Playoff implications are on the line when the Mets visit the Phillies on Friday night.

The Mets caught a break in the schedule with games against the White Sox, Reds and Blue Jays during their 10-2 run. However, things get much tougher against a Phillies team looking to stay in front of the Dodgers for the best record in baseball.

The Phillies, who have a 4-2 lead over the Mets in the season series, send Aaron Nola to pitch the opener, with New York countering with José Quintana.

While the Mets have won each of Quintana’s last three starts against Philadelphia, I’ll share why bettors should be skeptical of it happening again on Friday night.

Mets vs. Phillies odds

Mets outlook

At first glance, Quintana’s 8-9 record and 4.09 ERA look somewhat respectable. However, his 4.88 FIP does make him a strong candidate for regression. The warning signs have been there for some time, considering his 4.71 SIERA in 2023 was more than a full run higher than his traditional ERA (3.57). 

Using the SIERA advanced metric can often help project the long-term performance of pitchers year to year. Quintana’s Called + Swinging Strike Percent (24.5%) is his worst rate since his rookie season in 2012.

Although he is more of a sinkerball pitcher (29.2%), the Phillies have had success lifting the ball against him in their 153 plate appearances against Quintana, as evidenced by a 12.7 launch angle and a .479 xSLG. 

Philadelphia also ranks third in runs above average (+19.0) against sinkers.

Phillies outlook

Like Quintana, Nola also has a higher FIP (4.01) than his ERA (3.41), but it’s slightly less aggressive.

His advanced numbers against the Mets are also much more favorable. In 245 plate appearances, they have an average launch angle of 9.4 degrees with a .240 xBA and .363 xSLG.

Nola tends to pitch backward, throwing his knuckle curve 33% of the time. However, his arsenal also includes a sinker, which he throws 20.4% of the time. It’s his sinker that can often cause problems for the Mets, who are 8.5 runs below average when facing the pitch.

Considering that Citizens Bank Park is widely regarded as a hitter’s haven, an effective sinker could wind up being the difference in this matchup.

Mets vs. Phillies pick

One of Quintana’s wins against the Phillies came on penultimate day of the regular season when Philadelphia rested a handful of starters in preparation for the playoffs. 

Michael Plassmeyer got the start on the mound, allowing nine runs on eight hits in 3 ⅔ innings. He’s yet to pitch again in the majors since that outing.

In another Quintana start, he allowed three runs on six hits in 3 ⅔ innings before being withdrawn, but the Mets rallied to win to take him off the hook.

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While he’s looked decent in his last two outings, keep in mind that they were against the White Sox and Reds.

Historically, Nola has performed well in this price range against the Mets, winning all four games as an opening favorite of -156 or higher.

Look for the Philadelphia to come out on top in the series opener.

Pick: Phillies moneyline (-160, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.