Mets vs. Red Sox prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets Monday

The Mets look to avoid a letdown as they return home from a 10-game road trip to host the Red Sox on Monday night.

According to FanGraphs, they started the trip with a 27.3% chance of making the playoffs.

But after going 7-3, they now sit just one game out of a wild-card spot and raised their postseason chances a hair to 29.7%. 

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are headed in the opposite direction after going 3-7 in their last 10 games. They sit 4 1/2 games behind Kansas City for the last wild-card spot in the American League.

New York is the betting favorite to win Monday’s series opener, as Brayan Bello matches up against Luis Severino in what should be a well-attended Labor Day matchup. 

Red Sox vs Mets odds

Red Sox vs. Mets prediction

Severino has had a hard time stringing quality starts together since the All-Star break, with an ERA of 4.43 over his last 42 2/3 innings.

However, he’s struck out 26.6% of the batters he faced and holds a quality xFIP of 3.56 during that span. He has also pitched to an xBA of .248 and likely has been unlucky to see batters hit .345. 

Opponents hold a line-drive rate of just 20% against Severino this season, which is the lowest mark of any qualified starter in MLB. He has allowed a slug rate of only .346 at Citi Field this season.

Severino was hit by a 100-mph liner in his last matchup against Arizona but remained in the game and did not display any red flags in going above 100 pitches, though he did finish with an ugly stat line.

Thanks to Sean Manaea’s seven-inning start Sunday, the Mets’ bullpen enters Monday’s matchup in good shape.

That’s good news for a staff that has seen some ugly collapses in recent weeks, including an Edwin Diaz blowup in Severino’s last start.

Overall, however, the unit has a respectable 3.78 ERA over the last month. 

Since the start of August, the Red Sox have been a middle-of-the-pack side in terms of effectiveness against right-handed pitching. They hold a wRC+ of 104, with an OPS of .750 over the last month. They have struck out 25.6% of the time in that span and hold a hard-hit rate of 33.4%.

Aside from issuing a few too many free passes, Bello’s recent body of work is solid. He has pitched to an ERA of 3.00 in his last five outings, with an xFIP of 3.82. His hard-hit rate is down to just 33% in that span, while his strikeout rate is up to 23%. 

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Bello has struggled with runners in scoring position this season, as he has allowed a .274 batting average compared to a mark of .258 across all at-bats. He’s cleaned up that concern of late and is now getting rewarded. 

The Mets rank one spot above the Red Sox (13th) with a wRC+ of 106 against righties over the last month. They have struck out 26.1% of the time but have made a lot of hard contact (34.7%). 

Red Sox vs. Mets pick

Both starters in this game have been in strong form and should benefit from pitcher-friendly conditions at Citi Field. First pitch calls for a forecast of 76 degrees with wind blowing in toward home plate.

The Mets will also be without slugger and ex-Red Sox star J.D. Martinez

This presents as a good spot to bet the game to go under a total of 8.

Pick: Under 8 total runs (-115, DraftKings)