Michigan vs. Washington prediction: College football Week 6 odds, picks, best bets Saturday

In a rematch of the College Football Playoff Championship game from last January, Michigan heads West this week to take on Washington in the teams’ first meeting since the Huskies joined the Big Ten.

Much has changed for these teams over the last nine months, as both rosters look very different.

The Huskies are a short favorite for Saturday’s CFP title game rematch with an over/under consensus of 41.5 points.

Let’s dive in and make a prediction and pick for the game.

Michigan vs. Washington odds

When Michigan has the ball

Last week, the Wolverines escaped with a home win over Minnesota despite mustering just 3.75 yards per play.

Their offense has been dreadful regardless of which quarterback has started, and Alex Orji hasn’t provided the boost the team had hoped for; he garnered just 98 combined passing and rushing yards against the Gophers.

The Wolverines have leaned heavily on running back Kalel Mullings, who has rushed for more than 100 yards in three straight games. That approach will likely be taken again this week, but it makes them a one-dimensional offense against a well-coached Washington defense orchestrated by Steve Belichick.

Washington’s defense ranks sixth nationally in adjusted EPA/play, albeit against the 81st-ranked strength of schedule by FPI.

However, the Huskies rank just 89th in run defense EPA, which is concerning for this matchup. Last week, Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai had 25 carries for 132 yards and a score.

Still, if the Huskies load the box, Orji hasn’t shown the ability to make team’s pay.

When Washington has the ball

The Huskies had one of the most unlucky losses of the season against Rutgers. They finished above the 90th percentile in offensive success rate and yards per play, while their opponent finished below the 35th percentile in both.

However, Washington failed to capitalize on scoring opportunities with three missed field goals and two turnovers on downs in enemy territory.

Will Rogers has had a solid start with 10 passing touchdowns and no interceptions. His quick release, anticipation and accuracy make him a natural fit for Jedd Fisch’s offense.

You can typically expect Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale to be aggressive with a heavy blitz rate, but Rogers is Pro Football Focus’ fourth-highest-graded Power Five passer versus the blitz.

Washington overhauled its Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line in the offseason, but the unit has held up well so far. The Huskies rank 32nd in havoc allowed and have cleared holes for Arizona transfer Jonah Coleman, who ranks fourth in the country with 37 missed tackles forced.

Michigan vs. Washington pick

Michigan, which has escaped with three-point victories in the last two games, is simply not as good as its 4-1 record and No. 10 ranking.

The Wolverines rank 59th in net adjusted EPA/play, albeit against the 15th-ranked strength of schedule.

Betting on College Football?

Meanwhile, the Huskies are undervalued here after a loss to Rutgers in which they had a 72% postgame win expectancy.

I’m backing Washington to win this game and taking them to win straight-up.

Pick: Washington moneyline (-118, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.