MLB best bets: Friday’s player props, picks for Corbin Burnes, Bailey Ober

We’re targeting two player props on Friday’s MLB schedule, with a pair of American League pitchers trending in the right direction to hit their over projections.

Let’s get right into it.

Friday’s top MLB player prop bets

Corbin Burnes over 7.5 strikeouts (-124, FanDuel)

Burnes has just one start above 7.5 strikeouts since joining the Orioles and that was on Opening Day against the Angels.

However, Friday’s matchup with Oakland will easily be his most favorable matchup of the season thus far.

His strikeout prop line is supported by a career-low swinging-strike rate of 10%. 

So, why back a pitcher with declining strikeout stuff over the last three seasons? Well, there are a few reasons. 

Burnes’ average velocity is as high as it has been since his 2021 Cy Young season, and the spin rate on his cutter, curveball and slider are up from a year ago when he was in Milwaukee.

He has only generated more whiffs with the slider (54%) compared to last season, but the other two pitches have been a staple of his elite arsenal for several years now.

I fully expect those pitches to rebound to their elite form that was displayed with the Brewers. 

Burnes gets an elite matchup against the Athletics, who own the second-highest strikeout rate (28.4%) and third-lowest wRC+ (81) in baseball. 

Bailey Ober over 15.5 outs (-105, bet365) 

Ober cruised through five innings (15 outs) in fewer than 60 pitches in his last start before running into trouble in the sixth inning.

He ultimately finished the sixth (18 outs) in just 82 pitches, and easily cashed an over 15.5 outs prop against Detroit. 

His first start of the season that lasted only 1 1/3 innings is no doubt skewing his early 2024 numbers.

On Friday, he gets an Angels lineup that is around league average with a 99 wRC+, and that includes Mike Trout’s heroic start (10 home runs, with a slash line of .237/.321/.598)

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Once teams realize they should just walk Trout until he cools off, this should become an offense that is well below league average with very few power threats. 

Ober’s 2024 statistics are still skewed by an abysmal first start that does not represent his true talent level.

He now has consecutive starts of at least 80 pitches and six innings (18 outs), and I expect that to be the norm going forward.