MLB Division Series predictions. MLB Playoffs odds, picks, best bets

Baseball fans have lucked out with how the MLB playoff bracket has broken.

All four division series feature several highly intriguing storylines, including three sets of rivals squaring off and likely AL MVP Aaron Judge battling with probable runner-up Bobby Witt Jr.

We’ve broken down each series and have best bets for the ALDS, NLDS and beyond.

American League Division Series predictions and picks

ALDS: Yankees vs. Royals odds

ALDS: Yankees vs. Royals prediction

At +475 odds (bet365), the Royals are considered least likely to win the AL Pennant.

The Yankees are a worthy favorite in the AL, but I still lean with Kansas in this series at the price of +180, and am particularly high on their chances in the ALCS versus either the Tigers or Guardians. 

The Royals’ bullpen was a clear weakness early on, and over the entire regular season struggled to a 4.13 ERA.

The unit was drastically better down the stretch, however, in part due to the acquisition of Lucas Erceg.

Since Sept. 1, Kansas City relievers own MLB’s third-best ERA (2.77) that was lowered even further after 7 2/3 scoreless innings versus the Orioles in the wild-card round. 

Led by Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, the Royals feature four high-quality starters who can create low-event matchups and is slightly deeper than what the Yankees are offering with Nestor Cortes sidelined. 

They also feature a ton of speed on the basepaths and are excellent defensively. Vinnie Pasquantino’s early return also makes the top of the lineup far more formidable. 

Backing the Royals to win the series at +180 is a reasonable option, as is looking for loftier numbers to back them in the series if they lose Game 1 in a tough pitching matchup for them (Michael Wacha vs Gerrit Cole). 

However, my favorite bet entering this series is backing the Royals to win the AL Pennant.

I believe they can surprise the Yankees in this series, and if they do, they will likely gain a lot of respect in the market prior to a very winnable ALCS. 

Best bet: Royals to win AL Pennant (+475, bet365)

ALDS: Guardians vs. Tigers odds

ALDS: Guardians vs. Tigers prediction

The Tigers seem to have something special going on right now, which makes them a tempting bet as an underdog against a Guardians side that looks fairly beatable.

Cleveland’s starting rotation achieved an ERA of just 4.40, and the offense struggled to a wRC+ of only 93 since the All-Star break. 

Whether or not the Tigers can actually win a pennant offering only one convincing starting arm remains to be seen, though their current strategy of bullpen deployment is very interesting. 

It felt as if the Tigers had to have a win in Tarik Skubal’s start versus the Astros to have a chance in the wild-card round, and that’s likely how it will go the rest of the way.

He came through with six scoreless innings of dominance, and will likely need to record two wins for Detroit to have any chance in this round. 

If you’re still looking to buy into the Tigers’ miraculous run, backing Skubal at +1800 to win the ALCS MVP looks like a good option, as I don’t hate the chances they get there.

And if they do, it’s hard to see them winning without two elite performances from the soon-to-be Cy Young winner. 

Best bet: Tarik Skubal ALCS MVP (+1800, FanDuel)

National League Division Series predictions and picks

NLDS: Mets vs. Phillies odds

NLDS: Mets vs. Phillies prediction

This is a difficult series to pick, as good arguments can be made for both sides.

The Phillies have gotten so close the last two seasons, and they felt like a team of destiny for much of 2024. It’s easy right now to say the same for the Mets, who have me thinking about the Nationals’ special run in 2019. 

Given the struggles of Ranger Suarez down the stretch, the Phillies only have three convincing arms in Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Cris Sanchez.

Given the dominance of their bullpen that is still plenty enough to advance, but it could open the door for a longer series given the likelihood the Mets steal one of the opening three games.

Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino lead a Mets rotation that should be able to keep games tight, and their bullpen has also been excellent down the stretch.

These teams look fairly evenly matched right now, and I don’t see either one running away with this series.

At a long number of +150, I see value backing it to require a winner-take-all Game 5.

Best bet: Over 4.5 games (+150, bet365)

NLDS: Padres vs. Dodgers odds

NLDS: Padres vs. Dodgers prediction

The Padres looked to be the most well-rounded team in baseball entering the playoffs and put on a convincing display in the wild-card round versus the Braves. They were my World Series pick earlier in the week.

Thanks to injuries to Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone and Clayton Kershaw, the Padres are offering a starting rotation that looks far more convincing than that of the Dodgers.

San Diego projects as the best of any of the remaining teams thanks to several key deadline acquisitions.

The Padres’ lineup hit to a third-ranked wRC+ versus righties this season and was drastically less effective versus left-handed pitching.

The Dodgers aren’t well-suited to expose that flaw with a loaded right-handed staff that includes Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Landon Knack and Walker Buehler. 

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The Padres have a pitching edge in this matchup, even with the injury news regarding Joe Musgrove (Tommy John surgery), and their hitters’ splits against right-handed starters suggest their lineup can hang tough with the Dodgers’ high-powered unit.

At +120, I see value in betting the Padres to upset their greatest rival. 

Best bet: Padres to win NLDS (+120, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.