MLB player prop bets for Friday: Picks for Sonny Gray, Brad Keller

A full slate of baseball games on Friday gives us plenty of selections in the player props market.

With a focus on pitching, here are two of our favorites — both from the same game.

Friday’s MLB player props

Sonny Gray over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140, Bet365) 

Gray had a slow ramp-up to the season due to a spring training hamstring injury.

He made his 2024 season debut on April 9, recording five strikeouts in five innings against the Phillies despite throwing only 64 pitches.

He has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in each of the three starts since his debut, and he owns an elite 36% strikeout rate for the season.

I don’t think the 34-year-old Gray is suddenly an elite strikeout pitcher, as he posted a K-rate barely above league average over the last two seasons.

But, the underlying metrics are hard to ignore. His swinging strike rate sits at a healthy 13.7% through five starts, and his CSW% is an elite 32.7%.

He gets a matchup against the horrendous White Sox, who own the worst wRC+ (74) in the league and have struck out at the 11th-highest rate (23.8%) this season.

Even with a little regression in the underlying metrics, Gray should go over 5.5 strikeouts.

Brad Keller under 3.5 strikeouts (-140, DraftKings) 

Keller was a minor-league signing of the White Sox after six years of service time with the Royals.

He made three Triple-A starts this season and averaged fewer than 84 pitches in each outing before being called-up to the White Sox.

His first major-league outing came out of the bullpen, where he worked 1.2 innings and threw 31 pitches. 

Keller is expected to get the start for the White Sox on Friday against an underperforming Cardinals offense. St. Louis owns just an 86 wRC+ on the season, but they have struck out around a league-average rate of 23%. 

Expect Keller to work deep into this game given his minor-league pitch counts and recent bullpen outing.

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He has been significantly below average with his strikeout rate in his career (17.2%) and posted just a 14.7% strikeout rate for the Royals last season. 

He should stay under 3.5 Ks in his first start of 2024.