MLB prop bets: Wednesday’s picks for Carlos Rodón, Chris Sale, Mariners

Things are starting to heat up in MLB, and we’ll be heading into the thick of the summer months soon enough.

The Dodgers and Phillies appear to be the class of the National League, while the Orioles and Yankees look headed for an epic race in the American League East.

Just six weeks into the season, there’s plenty of baseball left, including an action-packed Wednesday. Let’s dice into some night-game prop bets to target.

Wednesday’s best MLB prop bets

Carlos Rodón under 5.5 strikeouts (-136, FanDuel)

Yankees vs. Astros, 7:05 p.m. ET

It might be time to officially label Rodón as a shell of his former self. He owns a decent 3.68 ERA, but the rest of his advanced and expected stats are roughly a run higher.

While the 31-year-old lefty is trying to figure out how to pitch at this point in his career, the strikeout rate is down to 22% – exactly what it was in 2023 when he wasn’t right.

Plenty of pitchers re-invent themselves. Heck, Zack Greinke pitched for way longer than he probably should have. But that doesn’t mean the K-stuff is going to come back.

Rodón is striking out 29% of lefties this season but only 21% of right-handed hitters (he’s seen way more righties this season, so the 22% overall rate checks out). Houston has a right-handed dominant lineup. Typically, the only lefties in the lineup are the elite bats of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.

The Astros rank first in baseball with a microscopic 16% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. It’s a brutal matchup for Rodón, and I’d expect this line to move to 4.5 on some books at some point closer to first pitch.

Chris Sale over 7.5 strikeouts (-110, bet365)

Braves vs. Red Sox, 7:20 p.m. ET

This 7.5-K line might seem like a big one considering Sale has only eclipsed it in one of his six appearances this season. But he’s been hovering right around that number, and he’ll get the best possible matchup on paper Wednesday night.

The Red Sox have shown a bit of pop against southpaws this season, but they continue to lead baseball with a 29% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Sale gives up some bombs and hard contact on occasion, but he’s been a bit unlucky, with a 3.44 ERA but just a 2.81 xERA. That doesn’t matter too much here – just making a point that he’s been really, really good under the hood.

Sale is sporting a very strong 29% strikeout rate this season, and he’ll have a chance for a ceiling game against his former team.

Mariners F5 innings moneyline (-120, BetMGM)

Mariners at Twins, 7:40 p.m. ET

I like targeting the first five-innings lines when I think there’s a huge starting pitching edge, because I don’t necessarily want to get the bullpens involved. And that’s my diagnosis of this game.

Minnesota’s Chris Paddack continues to profile as an average to below-average starting pitcher, with a 4.59 xERA and 4.24 FIP.

On the flip side, Seattle’s George Kirby has been elite this season, with a 2.85 xERA and 2.07 FIP.

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

It also helps that he’s on a heater during his last three starts, yielding just one total earned run during the stretch. And the opponents: Astros, Diamondbacks (No. 5 in runs scored) and Rockies (at Coors Field). 

Kirby is arguably the best control pitcher in baseball, owning just four total walks this season. There won’t be any freebies for the high-strikeout Twins, and they’ll be forced to swing the bat.