MNF betting preview: Can Wilson carry Steelers’ offense vs. Giants?

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

This is the Monday Night Football matchup for anyone who loves low-scoring, defensive battles. A 36.5 total is the lowest of this weekend’s games. In fact, no other total dipped below 40 in Week 8.

The Steelers‘ offense has scored at least 30 points in two straight weeks – once with Justin Fields at quarterback and once with Russell Wilson. The latter will remain the starter after throwing for 264 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win.

The Giants‘ passing defense isn’t as exploitable, but Pittsburgh should take advantage of New York’s porous run defense. The Giants’ offense has scored 10 combined points in its last two games. It won’t get any prettier against the Steelers’ second-ranked scoring defense, which allows 14 points per game.

Key trends

• The Steelers are 5-2 ATS, while the Giants are 3-4 ATS.
• Daniel Jones is 1-15 straight up and 6-10 ATS in night games.
• Mike Tomlin is 20-3 straight up and undefeated at home in his career on Monday Night Football.
• The Steelers are 80-65-5 (55%) ATS at home in the Tomlin era.
• The Giants are 12-8 ATS as a road underdog under Brian Daboll.
• Six of the Giants’ seven games have gone under the total.

Insights

The Steelers have earned the attention of bettors after an impressive win over the Jets with Wilson under center. Unsurprisingly, the total bets and money wagered are heavily skewed toward Pittsburgh’s spread.

Despite the low total, 74% of the bets and 69% of the money wagered are on the over.

Best bet – Giants +6

While the Steelers decimated the Jets last weekend, that might be a product of the Jets’ dysfunction more than the Steelers’ future outlook. The Giants’ strength is their defense, particularly against the passing game. Wilson won’t have success moving the ball like he did in his season debut. It’ll be hard for the Steelers to cover a 6-point spread in a low-scoring game. Pittsburgh has the edge with an effective ground game and solid run defense, but this spread is too big in a defensive battle.

Players to watch

Russell Wilson under 199.5 passing yards

Wilson had an impressive season debut last week. However, the formula to beat the Giants is out, and that requires running the football. New York has the NFL’s sixth-best passing defense but the 10th-worst rushing defense. The Eagles had 269 rushing yards and 114 passing yards in their resounding win over the Giants last week. Pittsburgh will follow a similar recipe, limiting Wilson’s passing opportunities.

Najee Harris over 59.5 rushing yards

For the same reason I’m bearish on Wilson’s passing prop, I’m bullish on Najee Harris’s outlook. Again, the Giants’ weakness is stopping the run, which means the Steelers should pound the rock with Harris. He’s had consecutive weeks of 100-plus rushing yards.

Devin Singletary under 34.5 rushing yards

The Steelers’ defense allows the league’s second-fewest rushing yards per game. Devin Singletary recorded fewer than 30 rushing yards the last two weeks against the Eagles – a mediocre rushing defense – and the Cowboys, a horrible rushing defense.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.