NBA games to watch this week as NBA Cup playoffs arrive (and 76ers don’t play until Friday)

We may be bias, but five games are defining of a team’s season. Well, we hope so anyway. The Philadelphia 76ers are 4-1 in their last five-game stretch. And with them not playing until Friday, it gives fans a dangerous amount of time to get optimistic about the season.

The reason for the long absence is this being NBA Cup Knockout Rounds week. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the advanced teams will try to win their way to Vegas for Saturday’s semi-finals and next Tuesday’s grand-final. Those games are the only ticketed for those respective days. That means, like the Sixers, plenty of teams are looking at an extended rest.

So, as I recommend you what game to watch each day (with a bias towards Eastern teams because it is good to know what Philly is up against), I’ll give a brief run down on how the team has performed in their last five games, as that is what matters, the present, not any 3-14 starts, right?

Dec. 9: New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors
Over the last five games, the New York Knicks are doing what they’re supposed to do. They have the seventh-best offensive rating (117.6), fourth-best defensive rating (104.9), and fourth-best net rating (plus-12.7). Before losing to Detroit in their last game (where they were without KAT), the Knicks were cleaning up against weak offensive teams.

They beat Charlotte by one before destroying New Orleans (with no Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson or Herb Jones), Orlando (a good team), and Charlotte again (by 24 this time). Those teams are all in the bottom 10 in offensive rating this season. So, while such a gaudy defensive rating over the last five is a welcome sight for a Knicks team with defensive issues all season, it stinks of iron pyrite.

But their offense is still one of the best in the league. KAT, who is questionable for this Raptors matchup, is having a phenomenal season playing off Jalen Brunson. OG Anunoby recently dropped 40 points and his wing-mate Mikal Bridges is shooting 39.5% on threes in his last five contests after a classically-New Yorkly scrutinized start to the season.

And they’ll get another chance to play a bottom-10 offense (and defense) in Toronto. Led by Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett, the Raptors have picked up wins over the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat over their last five games but were also blown out by the OKC Thunder and lost to Miami and the Dallas Mavericks. They’re not necessarily an easy beat, but a wannabe contender like the Knicks should beat them.

They’ll have to stop Barnes & Barrett, which sounds like a department store but is actually a duo who, over their last five games, is averaging a combined 47.8 points, 16.6 rebounds, and 14.8 assists on 53.4 fg% and 38.4% from three. It’s like if Nikola Jokić was two people.

Neither team has a great bench but this is the only game of the night so you will watch those bench minutes and be happy.

Dec. 10 (NBA Cup Quarter-finals): Orlando Magic vs Milwaukee Bucks
Has anyone hated obliques more than Orlando Magic fans do right now? During the best stretch of his career, their star forward tore his right oblique, sidelining him for months. That statement is true for both of their best players. Paolo Banchero suffered the injury on Oct. 30, only for Franz Wagner to last week. Franz was so good before his injury that it moots all analysis on Orlando for now.

It also makes this a should-win game for the Milwaukee Bucks, who have gone 3-2 in the last five after winning five straight before that.

It’s a very real turnaround for a team that started 2-8. They have the eighth-best offense in the last five games and Khris Middleton is finally back. Giannis Antetokoumpo is the best player in the East and his co-mate Damian Lillard is finally looking comfortable, averaging 24.9 points and 7 assists with 43.9% three-point shooting over the last five.

Orlando should still be a formidable defense without Franz, but they’ll have no star offensive power to keep up with Dame and Giannis. Upsets happen, but the Bucks have already had their ‘wake the fuck up’ moment this season in their poor start.

Look for Jalen Suggs and Franz’s brother Mo to have big games for the Magic, but they’d have to play at their best ever. Just a brutal, brutal injury for Orlando.

Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Dec. 11 (NBA Cup Quarter-finals): Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
As predictability has left the Atlanta Hawks locker room, success has entered. They are 4-1 over their last five games but with just the 15th-best net rating (plus-0.6). In that stretch, they’re not top 10 in defensive or offensive rating. What the hell is going on in Atlanta?

That net rating isn’t helped by their shellacking at the hands of Denver Sunday night. But this is still a really weird team, defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers twice and Boston once, but also losing to league-worst Washington twice.

They are spearheaded by Trae Young’s weirdest career season. Young leads the league in assists but is shooting career-lows from the field and three and averages the least points since his rookie season. I’ve waxed poetic about Dyson Daniels all season and he’s got a limited offensive game while being so great on defense it’s weird to witness. Zaccharie Risacher was the first overall pick but he’s less talked about than the wallpaper at a rave. Weird, weird, weird.

Trae Young nor the Knicks faithful have forgotten their past playoff battles. So, this Atlanta team in an elimination game at the Madison Square Garden has a high chance of pure cinema.

Dec. 12: Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
Boston sucks, finally! That’s right, the reigning champions are 3-2 in their last five matches, with only the 10th-best net rating (plus-5.0). Ah, wait. Those five games have come in seven days, including two back-to-backs. Their two losses were against East-leading Cleveland and the West’s second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Three wins from such a stretch is a welcome result, even if Joe Mazzulla sees every loss as a fate worse than death.

Boston is shooting 34.1% from three in this stretch, the ninth-worst mark in the league. Against Cleveland and Memphis, they shot a combined 35/109 from beyond. That is wild. And though it’s not likely they shoot this ‘bad’ for the rest of the season, it’s the only flaw in Maz-ball: they’re at the whim of the rim; if their threes don’t go in, they don’t stop shooting them. Maths says it should level out and probably will in a playoff series, but in one-off games they can lose.

In their last five, the Detroit Pistons lost three times to three good teams: Milwaukee, Boston, and Philadelphia — I’m calling the Sixers a good team because they have been in this stretch. Cade Cunningham is a phenomenal basketball player and is finally getting the bare minimum amount of help he deserves. In the stretch, the team is shooting 41.9% from three, the fourth-best mark in the league.

If the 44.6% three-point shooting Cade himself has displayed over the last five games is here to stay, watch out. If it’s not, you don’t have to watch out, but watch him. He’s shifty, strong and has the ball a lot. He could be the face of the East eventually. If a lot goes right.

So, this game is a good case of a brilliant, possibly tired team dealing with a championship hangover and bad shooting stretch against a bad young team getting better and ready to prove itself on a hot shooting streak. It reeks of an upset.

Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images

Dec. 13: Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers
I know the point of this column is to watch teams not based in Philadelphia, but the 76ers are on their best run of the season and may have finally turned the campaign around. As mentioned up top, they’re 4-1 in the last five, but that’s despite shooting just 33.1% from three (24th in the league). They’re winning with their defense. They have the second-best defensive rating in the league in this stretch (104.2) and are forcing the second-most turnovers.

Like the Knicks, the games have been against bad offensive teams (Detroit, Charlotte, Orlando twice, and Chicago), but Philly themselves were one of the worst teams in the league. So a win is a win is a win. Hopefully, Joel Embiid is playing so we get even more of a look at the roster that unofficially won the offseason. If the team’s three-point shooting comes around, expect a Bucks-esque comeback into the top half of the standings.

Philly is already just 1.5 games back from the play-in, and Indiana is one of those play-in teams trying to keep their floor from falling beneath them. But it might be blowing up into a billion pieces. In their last five, they have gone 1-4 with losses to Charlotte, Brooklyn, Toronto and Memphis. Other than Memphis, those are big yikes losses ringing the ‘we kinda suck right?’ bell.

After playing historically effective offense last season, they’ve absolutely cratered with the ball. In this stretch, their 108.7 offensive rating is 23rd in the league. they’re bottom 10 in assist-to-turnover ratio, and are shooting the fourth-lowest amount of threes.

Last year they had an offensive rating of 120.5, had the best assist-to-turnover ration in the league, and shot the 15th-most threes in the league. Indiana Pacers? More like Identity Crisis Pacers!

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Dec. 14 NBA Cup Semi-Finals: TBC
We don’t know who will be playing these games, so let me predict the NBA Cup playoffs to this point.

In the quarter-finals, I have Milwaukee over Orlando, New York over Atlanta, Oklahoma over Dallas, and Houston over Golden State.

That means the semi-finals would be Milwaukee vs. New York and Oklahoma vs. Houston. Give me a Milwaukee vs. OKC final.

I predict Giannis will drop 65 points in the Final and take home his first NBA Cup in an overtime win that includes a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wedgie as time expires.

Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Dec. 15: Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
This Sunday, the only games involving Eastern teams are Indiana vs New Orleans and Boston vs Washington — it’s OK if you don’t want to watch those.

Instead, watch LeBron James in what may be his last season as a top-tier player. His Lakers have been dire in their last five, going 2-3 with the third-worst net rating in that stretch (minus-12.4). They would be 1-4 if not for Utah Jazz coach Will Hardy deciding to tank with one second left. They seem destined to waste the final years of King James’ play.

Despite having some of the worst games he’s had in a decade, LeBron is still averaging 23 points, 7.2 rebounds and 8.6 assists in this recent stretch (he is also shooting 21% from three and averaging four turnovers). He’s still capable of dropping 39-point triple-doubles like he did against Atlanta, but the likelihood of him having just 10 points is the highest since his rookie season. Tune in so you can watch history either way.

There is no NBA team more anti-monarchist than the Memphis Grizzlies. They vilified the Lakers after losing to them in the 2023 playoffs. That series ended with the Grizzlies depleted as Los Angeles chuckled to a 27-point blowout. But now, Memphis looks like the far better team. Over the last five, their sixth in offensive rating (117.6), seventh in defensive rating (108.5), and seventh in net rating (9.1). They just beat Boston in Boston for their third win in a row, their fourth in their last five, and their ninth in their last 10.

A continued run of success will surely bring back the Grizzlies’ brashness which fueled the Lakers’ joy in eliminating them.