NBA playoffs betting: Four bets for Pacers-Knicks, Wolves-Nuggets

The NBA semifinals continue Tuesday night, and the pressure is on for all four teams. In a series tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 goes on to win the series 82% of the time.

How will the New York Knicks respond after the Indiana Pacers beat them by 32 points in Game 4? And will the Denver Nuggets be the first to defend home court in the series against the Minnesota Timberwolves?

It will be fun to watch, and here are four bets that immediately caught my attention.

Jalen Brunson OVER 31.5 points. With the series tied, the Knicks face a crucial Game 5 at Madison Square Garden after a tough loss in Game 4. Without forward OG Anunoby, and showing signs of fatigue in Game 4 due to their starters playing heavy minutes, the Knicks need a strong start and to rely heavily on Brunson, their leading scorer. Despite surpassing this line only once in the series, Brunson has shown consistency, clearing it in 60% of his past 20 games.

Pascal Siakam OVER 19.5 points. The Knicks have struggled to contain Siakam without Anunoby. While Siakam fell short of this line in Game 4, the context matters. Siakam scored 26 points in 30.6 minutes in Game 3. Even in a blowout win in Game 4, he scored 14 points in just 22.4 minutes. With the Pacers maintaining a fast pace, Siakam should see plenty of scoring chances in what the spread implies will be a close game. He has attempted 14 or more field goals in three of the four games in this series.

Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 points, rebounds and assists. The line might seem high, but Game 5 is crucial for the Nuggets. They’ve found ways to exploit the Timberwolves’ defense, and playing in Denver gives them an edge. Jokic has averaged only 46.2 points, rebounds and assists so far in this series, but there’s potential for him to exceed that Tuesday night. Aaron Gordon should get more defensive attention after scoring 20 or more points in two of the past three games. Minnesota will need to allocate a defender to mark Gordon, and there’s a good chance it won’t be Gobert, which bodes well for Jokic. There is also a strong chance this game exceeds the 205.5 point total.

Anthony Edwards OVER 5.5 assists. The Wolves need everyone involved to stand a chance against the Nuggets; even if Edwards drops 40 points, that doesn’t guarantee a victory. He has already racked up five or more assists in three of the four games this series. In Game 2, his seven assists fueled Minnesota’s best performance yet. Also, Edwards has averaged 8.5 potential assists per game this series.

Projections and Injury Reports

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks

East semifinals – Game 5
8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden, New York

Records (Against the Spread)
Pacers: 47-35 (44-36-2)
Knicks: 50-32 (44-37-1)

Line: Knicks (-1.5) Total: 216.5
Money Line: Pacers (+100), Knicks (-120)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 1.3, straight up 54%, 222.3 total points.

Injury Report:
Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD – Back); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT – Shoulder)
Knicks: OG Anunoby, (OUT – Hamstring); Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT – Foot); Duane Washington Jr., (OUT – Knee); Julius Randle, (OUT – Shoulder); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT – Ankle)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
West semifinals – Game 5
10:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena, Denver

Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 56-26 (40-39-3)
Nuggets: 57-25 (38-42-2)

Line: Nuggets (-3.5) Total: 206.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (+155), Nuggets (-185)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 1.8, straight up 56%, 206.9 total points.

Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles)
Nuggets: Jamal Murray, (GTD – Calf); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee); Collin Gillespie, (OUT – Knee)