Nets vs. Hornets prediction: NBA picks, odds, best bets Tuesday

After losing back-to-back road games against the rival Knicks, the Brooklyn Nets will look forward to returning to Barclays Center to host the Hornets.

Tuesday’s matchup presents an excellent opportunity for the Nets to get back in the win column against a Charlotte team that should have its share of struggles this season.

Although both teams are probably in a race to the bottom, someone has to win the game, and my model suggests the Nets have the edge as 2.5-point home favorites.

Hornets vs. Nets odds

Hornets analysis 

The Hornets haven’t shown to be a very efficient team, ranking 29th in field-goal percentage (42.9%). 

Even when they get shots within five feet of the basket, they only shoot 58% — the fourth-worst mark in the league.

The data suggests they should be more successful in this category because they’re certainly getting enough opportunities at the rim, ranking seventh in drives with 51.2 per game.

One issue for the Hornets is they often play with a smaller lineup that’s getting outmuscled inside the paint, ranking 27th with 41.8 points per game. 

We’re also seeing their frontcourt players get pushed further away from the rim, where they’ve also been less successful.

Miles Bridges and Brandon Miller shoot around 30% from beyond the arc, yet they’re attempting roughly 15 3-pointers per game.

But this is who the Hornets are because they simply lack the physicality to score inside the paint. 

Therefore, unless they shoot lights out from the perimeter, it’s tough for them to come out on top in these games.

Nets analysis

Like Charlotte, the Nets also do a tremendous job getting to the rim, ranking sixth with 53.1 drives per game. 

However, their roster is better suited to score inside the paint, as they’re also able to draw fouls and head to the free-throw line.

The Nets average 22.2 free-throw attempts compared to Charlotte, which ranks last with 18.1. Brooklyn also shoots 80.7% from the charity stripe — the seventh-best mark in the league.

One thing about the Nets is they repeatedly get themselves in good scoring positions on the floor. They essentially play with two point guards on the court, with Ben Simmons and Dennis Schroder averaging a combined 13 assists per game.

Thus, the Nets’ offense is much more fluid and looks more promising in their half-court sets. 

Simmons and Schoder are also surrounded by good shooters capable of knocking down open perimeter shots.

The Nets are a top-10 team in 3-point percentage (37.3%) and field goals (15.3), making them the likelier of the two teams to have better success offensively.

Hornets vs. Nets pick

If you look at the teams ranked atop the league in offensive efficiency, the Nets are the only ones in the top 10 with a record below .500.

While they’ve struggled defensively, they match up well against Charlotte because they have the size to push the Hornets further away from the rim.

Betting on the NBA?

And if the Hornets settle for hoisting up 3-pointers, the Nets rank seventh in opponent 3-point field goals (12.4) and fourth in opponent 3-point attempts (35).

Look for the Nets to ride their perimeter defense to a victory over the Hornets. 

My model makes Brooklyn closer to a 4.5-point favorite, giving me enough of an edge to lay the 2.5 points at BetMGM. 

Pick: Nets -2.5 (-115, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.