New England Patriots vs. New York Jets: Thursday Night Football Best Bets, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Week 3 brings us a classic matchup between the New England Patriots and New York Jets. Both teams are 1-1 coming into this week, although the Patriots could easily be 2-0. As always, there is a plethora of ways to bet on this game on DraftKings Sportsbook. I’ll give you some of my best bets and predictions for this matchup.

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New England Patriots +6.5 -115

If you asked me before the season began if I would be backing the Patriots by Week 3, I would have gave you a resounding no. But, here we are, backing the Patriots in Week 3. This game has a very low total of 38.5 points, which helps the case to take the underdog in this type of situation. The public, at least as of Wednesday morning, is on the side of the Patriots, as they’re receiving 60% of the bets and 55% of the money.

The Patriots will likely be running the ball heavily once again. Through the first two weeks of the season 58% of the time, which is the fifth-highest in the league. It’s worked well, as they’ve logged 355 rushing yards, which is an average of 4.7 YPC. The Jets have allowed 4.4 YPC to their opponents through the first two weeks. If the Jets continue to falter against the run, this could be a great opportunity for the Patriots to control the ball and eat the clock. The Jets have some major injuries already, as they lost defensive end Jermaine Johnson and C.J. Mosley is questionable to play with a sprained big toe. This could be a really big spot for the Patriots to exploit.

This is a total that Stevenson has easily cleared in both games this season. He’s run the ball 25 times in Week 1 and 21 times in Week 2. As I mentioned earlier, the Patriots are running the ball at one of the highest rates in the league and I wouldn’t expect that to change in Week 3. I was a bit surprised to see this at +110 seeing that Stevenson is logging 20+ rush attempts to start the season.

The Patriots passing game hasn’t gotten off to a hot start either. I wouldn’t expect Week 3 to be where it breaks out against this Jets secondary. The Patriots last week started KJ Osborn and Ja’Lynn Polk while mixing in DeMario Douglas and Tyquan Thornton. Not exactly an elite group of receivers, right? If anything, it’s been Hunter Henry that’s been the main target, drawing 15 targets in two games. Thus, this is why the run game has been so key for the Patriots in the early going.

When you look at how well Stevenson has been running, this really drives the bet home for me. He’s averaging nearly four yards per carry after contact, which is trending to be best mark of his career. He’s also already logged six carries of at least 10 yards. Last season, he had a total of 10! The Pats should be riding his hot hand early and often, which is why I’m on the over.

I find this one to be interesting from what we’ve seen from Rodgers thus far. He’s not throwing deep down field. In fact, he’s only made four attempts of at least 20+ yards and hit two of them for a total of 53 yards. But, this means, the majority of his pass attempts have been short, quick throws. Currently, his aDOT sits at 6.8, which places him 21st amongst qualified quarterbacks. He’s also throwing the ball at the second quickest rate of 2.38, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa at 2.31.

While the Patriots gave up a big game to DK Metcalf last week, overall, they’re not giving up much after the catch. Currently, CB Marcus Jones has allowed the most YAC in coverage on the Pats and it’s only 40 yards. While someone like Garrett Wilson has the big play ability, his current aDOT sits at 9.5. His longest catch through the first two weeks sits at 26 yards. With the Patriots secondary, I think Rodgers will be held to under 35.5 yards for his longest completion.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.