New York Giants given best chance of landing No. 1 pick in 2025 NFL Draft

The New York Giants might not be tanking, but according to the Pro Football Network Playoff Predictor they are the team most likely to end up with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

PFN projects the 2-10 Giants with a 30% chance of “earning” the first pick in the draft. Here is PFN’s current list of the 10 most likely teams to earn the No. 1 pick:

1. New York Giants (30%)
2. New England Patriots (22.7%)
3. Carolina Panthers (15.4%)
4. Las Vegas Raiders (12.1%)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (10.6%)
6. Cleveland Browns (5.9%)
7. New York Jets (1.8%)
8. Tennessee Titans (0.7%)
9. Chicago Bears (0.5%)
10. New Orleans Saints (0.2%)

Per Tankathon, the Giants are currently slotted No. 3 in the draft order behind the Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders. All three teams are 2-10, but the strength of schedule places the Giants in the third spot.

Pro Football Network ran 10,000 simulations to come up with its percentages.

• Something else interesting is that the Giants’ chances at the No. 1 pick have gone up exponentially since they waived quarterback Daniel Jones. Per PFN, after losing to the Carolina Panthers in Jones’ final game with the team, the Giants only had a 10.1% chance to earn the top pick. But after factoring in the QB change, their odds jumped up to 17.4 and then 26.3% last week after the Cleveland Browns upset the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12. Now the Giants have a 30% chance to pick first overall.
• Per PFN, Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders has the lowest average draft position (2.1) of any player, and is currently the most popular pick for the Giants.

Don’t blame the defense

It is entirely possible that the Giants’ defense falls apart over the season’s final five weeks. Dexter Lawrence and Azeez Ojulari are on IR. Bobby Okereke, Deonte Banks and Rakeem Nunez-Roches are injured and likely out this week — and perhaps beyond.

Don’t blame the defense, though, for the Giants being 2-10. Yes, the run defense is atrocious. Yes, they have set an NFL record by failing to intercept a pass in 11 straight games. Overall, though, PFN’s data shows the defense has been far better than the offense.

PFN has created metrics called Offense+ and Defense+.

Per PFN, Defense+ “evaluates multiple statistics to create a single, easy-to-digest “score” and “grade.” Offense+ “uses several different statistics that cover multiple situations to create one score and grade.”

Defensively, the Giants are 17th in the league using PFN’s metric. They have a 74.1 score and a grade of ‘C’. Offensively, they are 30th with a 64.1 score and a ‘D-’ grade.