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New York Mets MLB trade deadline primer: 3 early storylines to watch

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6 months ago

June 12, 2024

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New York Mets MLB trade deadline primer: 3 early storylines to watch

NEW YORK — When speaking to reporters in London last week, New York Mets owner Steve Cohen clearly had little interest in discussing the trade deadline, and kept saying, “We have a lot of games left.” For the Mets, there are precisely 97 games left. Since they reside in a mediocre National League, there’s still enough time, at least in theory, to revive their season despite looking like anything but a playoff team through the first couple of months.

The challenge for the Mets is taking advantage of the opportunity, which means winning games, and quickly. Otherwise, time ticks. The trade deadline is July 30, and, realistically, teams start exploring options earlier than that.

The Mets, led by new president of baseball operations David Stearns, stand out during this trade deadline season as arguably the most fascinating team. That’s because they have star first baseman Pete Alonso on an expiring deal along with a host of others, making for a long and attractive list of trade candidates. Add in Cohen’s ability to absorb money, plus the experience, creativity and acumen of Stearns, and you have quite the situation to monitor.

Here’s a primer on what to look out for in the weeks ahead:

Can the Mets avoid a sell-off (and what would an alternative look like)?

Based on their play so far this season, the Mets have an opportunity that they don’t deserve. But that’s life in the NL, where there are only five teams with winning records and six playoff spots up for grabs. The Mets entered Tuesday just 3.5 games out of a wild-card spot. They’ve played better lately (especially offensively), and they’re getting healthier, especially with catcher Francisco Alvarez back in the lineup.

Could just having a decent shot at getting in the playoffs be enough to thwart a sale? Maybe not. The probability still points to the Mets missing out, and they’ve yet to demonstrate they can play good baseball over a considerable stretch of time, anyway.

For the purpose of this exercise, though, let’s say the Mets go on a run — then what? It’s hard to see the club parting with much of its farm system, given its long-term goals and play to date. One thing the Mets could do is trade from their starting rotation in a hybrid position of sorts (not really buying but not entirely selling). They could conceivably trade either Sean Manaea, Luis Severino or Jose Quintana (or a combination) and still have Tylor Megilll, David Peterson, Christian Scott and Jose Butto as starting options (along with Kodai Senga, assuming he returns at some point in the second half).

If the Mets sell, how deep can it go and what can they get back?

After conversations with evaluators around the league, here’s a list of trade candidates on the Mets who teams would generally be interested in: Alonso, J.D. Martinez (DH), Luis Severino (SP), Jose Quintana (SP), Sean Manaea (SP), Harrison Bader (OF), Starling Marte (OF), Jeff McNeil (2B), Jake Diekman (RP), Drew Smith (RP), Reed Garrett (RP), Sean Reid-Foley (RP), Adam Ottavino (RP). That’s … a lot. And there may be more; those were just semi-obvious choices. Of the group, Alonso, Martinez, Severino, Quintana, Bader, Smith and Ottavino are on expiring deals.

A couple of longtime evaluators ranked the candidates on expiring deals as: Alonso, Severino, Martinez and Bader; it largely depends on need. Almost every competing team is looking for some kind of pitching upgrade, so the Mets’ starters and relievers should receive some level of interest.

Sean Manaea could be on the block as the Mets get closer to the trade deadline. (Wendell Cruz / USA Today)

Manaea (player option) and Diekman (vesting options) have options, which evaluators said make deals tricky. One reason why is because in the event of a player option like Manaea’s, he could theoretically get injured in 2024 (and then carry health concerns heading into 2025) and still choose to stay with the team that traded for him.

In theory, the Mets could move Marte and McNeil, but rival evaluators say that New York would have to pay down portions of their respective salaries. The Mets did that last year in trades involving Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Mark Canha. Marte is more attractive than McNeil because of the difference in offensive performance this season, but both players carry defensive concerns.

In a twist that differs from recent years, the Mets have a need for more quality position-player prospects. They’ve shown a recent ability to better develop pitchers. And a handful of key position-player prospects have missed significant time this season because of injuries. When it comes to prospect returns, teams generally target the best available, but it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see the Mets try to pick up more athletic, up-the-middle players.

What about Alonso?

Alonso’s future is the biggest story around the Mets. That will continue either way they end up faring over the next month and a half or so.

Alonso would be the best slugger on the trade market. He is also a homegrown star for the Mets. He probably means more to the Mets than any other team. But he’s 29 at a position that doesn’t always see sluggers age gracefully. Those dynamics make for a truly compelling case.

Alonso is a free agent at the end of the season, but he’s also making $20.5 million in 2024. For some clubs with tighter budgets, especially in the second half of the season, that’s still a solid amount of money. If the Mets make Alonso available, it would be interesting to see if they pay down his salary to get a better return, too. One evaluator suggested the Mets should be looking to move Alonso because they would get only a fourth-round draft pick in draft compensation for letting him sign elsewhere in free agency. If the Mets make him available, a speculative list of sensible suitors include the Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners and a few others; it’s shaping up to be a seller’s market based on how many teams remain in the playoff picture, which makes it hard to pinpoint a possible return at this point.