NFC South preview and predictions: Buccaneers, Falcons battle for supremacy

Jared Schwartz previews the NFC South as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2024 NFL season.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Coach: Todd Bowles

2023 record: 9-8 | O/U wins: 7.5

Key additions: G Ben Bredeson, S Jordan Whitehead, C Graham Barton, LB Chris Braswell

Key departures: LB Shaq Barrett, LB Devin White, G Aaron Stinnie

First-and-goal: QB Baker Mayfield rejuvenated his career last year, emerging from journeyman status to become the team’s unquestioned starter. He enjoyed a career year as he led the Bucs to a playoff berth and earned a three-year, $100 million deal as a reward. His supporting cast — stud receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and running back Rachaad White — is back, and the team’s best offensive lineman, Tristan Wirfs, is locked into a five-year, $140 million deal.

Fourth-and-long: Mayfield has produced extremely polarizing results throughout his career. Which version are they getting this year? Barrett and White leave behind big shoes to fill, and there will be two new starters on the offensive line.

Prediction: 9-8. A second consecutive division title, Mayfield and a strong defense top an otherwise weak division.

2. Atlanta Falcons

Coach: Raheem Morris

2023 record: 7-10 | O/U wins: 9.5

Key additions: QB Kirk Cousins, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, DT James Smith-Williams, QB Michael Penix, DT Ruke Orhorhoro

Key departures: DE Bud Dupree, DE Calais Campbell, QB Desmond Ridder, RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson, CB Jeff Okudah

First-and-goal: As Morris takes over, the Falcons finally have the QB they’ve longed for since Matt Ryan left in Cousins, who has made the playoffs four times. Running back Bijan Robinson, whom the Falcons drafted with the No. 8 pick last year, should only improve on his solid, if unspectacular, rookie year. Tight end Kyle Pitts, whom they picked No. 4 overall in 2021, and receiver Drake London, whom they picked No. 8 overall in 2022, still haven’t fully found their groove. Eventually, this offense has enough talent to break out, right?

Fourth-and-long: The bizarre choice to take Penix with the No. 8 pick in the draft — despite signing Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract — means the Falcons missed out on high-end weapons they could have provided for their new QB. Cousins, 36, is coming off a torn Achilles. How much does he still have left? Does Penix enter the picture?

Prediction: 9-8. Cousins keeps Penix on the bench and elevates all the playmakers the team invested so much in. Morris gets the Falcons into the playoffs for the first time since 2018.

3. Carolina Panthers

Coach: Dave Canales

2023 record: 2-15 | O/U wins: 5.5

Key additions: LB Jadeveon Clowney, LB D.J. Wonnum, WR Diontae Johnson, G Damien Lewis, G Robert Hunt, S Jordan Fuller, DT/DE A’Shawn Robinson, LB Josey Jewell, CB Dane Jackson, OT Yosh Nijman, LB K’Lavon Chaisson, WR Xavier Legette, RB Jonathon Brooks

Key departures: LB/DE Brian Burns, WR DJ Chark Jr., C Bradley Bozeman, CB Donte Jackson, TE Hayden Hurst, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, CB Shaquill Griffin

First-and-goal: One of the league’s most overhauled rosters, it can’t get much worse for QB Bryce Young and the Panthers. They invested heavily at offensive line and receiver to help Young, whom they picked first overall last year. Does he prove them right and figure it all out in Year 2? New starters take over all over the place on both sides of the ball.

Fourth-and-long: Everything hinges on Young — is he a bust, the franchise QB the Panthers thought they drafted, or something in between? Is Canales an improvement on Frank Reich? The roster has tons of turnover, but that doesn’t necessarily make it any better.

Prediction: 5-12. Young takes a step forward, and the Panthers get out of the league’s basement. No longer a laughing stock, the Panthers finally begin building something positive.

4. New Orleans Saints

Coach: Dennis Allen

2023 record: 9-8 | O/U wins: 7.5

Key additions: G Lucas Patrick, LB Willie Gay, WR Equanimeous St. Brown, DE Chase Young, S Will Harris, OT Taliese Fuaga, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

Key departures: G Andrus Peat, G James Hurst, S Marcus Maye, WR Michael Thomas, TE Jimmy Graham, LB Zack Baun

First-and-goal: QB Derek Carr’s first season after signing a four-year, $150 million deal with the team was a wild ride. He faced heavy criticism but rallied to win four of the last five games. Was that a sign of things to come or a result of a soft part of their schedule? Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are two of the more exciting young receivers in the league.

Fourth-and-long: There was plenty from Carr’s showing last year that makes contention this year hard to fathom. Alvin Kamara is past his prime, as are defensive stalwarts Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu. Offensive line remains a huge question.

Prediction: 5-12. Carr more resembles last year’s early-season form, and the Saints endure one of the league’s biggest drop-offs.