NFL odds, Week 14 lines, ATS predictions, game picks, tips, times: Model simulates all games 10,000 times

Before making Week 14 NFL picks, you shouldn’t assume that teams struggling to win outright also struggle to win against the spread (ATS). Jacksonville has lost five straight and the Bears are on a six-game losing streak, but these are also two of the best teams when it comes to covering. In fact, they are the only teams playing in Week 14 with losing straight-up records who have winning NFL spread records, which may influence your Week 14 NFL ATS predictions. The latest NFL lines have the Jaguars as 3.5-point underdogs versus the Titans, while the Bears are four-point underdogs versus San Francisco.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs (-4) and Seahawks (-2.5) are division leaders, but they’re also the only teams in action on Sunday who have winning records straight-up, but losing records ATS. Researching NFL betting trends can help you find nuggets like these to assist with Week 14 NFL best bets and NFL game picks. All of the Week 14 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 14 NFL picks now. Plus, get the model’s full Week 14 NFL score predictions here.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 24-10 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 204-138 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 58-31 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 14 NFL odds and NFL betting lines and locked in betting picks for every NFL matchup. You can find them all here.

Where to bet NFL games

Below is a comparison of the various welcome promotions available along with reviews of the major sportsbooks and their current promo offers.   

Thursday, Dec. 5

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 51.5)

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: Prime Video

Jared Goff has been interception-free in eight of his last nine games as Detroit ranks in the top two of the NFL in scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense and redzone defense. Green Bay is 7-1 straight-up over its last eight games but just 4-4 ATS over this stretch. The Packers are 0-3 ATS in divisional games. Packers receiver Romeo Doubs is out with a concussion.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, projects one team to score five fewer points than its season average, and it says one team will give up nearly a touchdown more than its average. See the NFL projections here.

Sunday, Dec. 8

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6, 45.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

The Dolphins are 10-2 both straight-up and ATS over their last 12 meetings with the Jets. Aaron Rodgers has had under 200 passing yards in each of his last three games, and Week 14 marks the three-year anniversary since Rodgers’ last 300-yard passing game, when he had 341 yards in Week 14 of 2021.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 24-10 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, projects two players to have nearly 90 scrimmage yards, while another three players have at least 60 yards from scrimmage. See the NFL projections here.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 45.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

Both teams have seen the Over hit just four times all season — tied for the fewest amongst all NFL teams. The Under has hit in four straight Falcons games, while the Under is 4-1 over the last five Vikings contests. This will be Kirk Cousins’ first game versus his former squad, and he enters with zero touchdowns, six interceptions and four total fumbles over his last three starts.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 204-138 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 58-31 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says one quarterback has nearly a 100% chance of throwing an interception. Get more NFL projections here.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+4.5, 41)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

The Giants, who played on Thanksgiving, are 6-2 ATS with a rest advantage since Brian Daboll became head coach in 2022. That 75% cover rate is the third-best over that span. Meanwhile, the Saints are only 2-6 ATS with less rest than their opponents over that span, with that 25% cover rate the third-worst in the NFL.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says one side of the total hits in well over 50% of simulations. See which it is right here.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5, 46)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

As a whole, NFL teams that are double-digit underdogs are 3-5 ATS in 2024. Carolina is 1-2 ATS as a double-digit dog, but the Panthers have covered in each of their last four games overall. Philadelphia has also covered in four straight and is 6-2 versus the spread during its current eight-game win streak.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 24-10 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, has an A-rated spread pick, where one team covers nearly 60% of the time, and an A-rated total pick, where one side hits in over 60% of simulations. Get the model’s coveted A-rated picks here.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 43.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

The Browns won outright as home underdogs versus Pittsburgh just two weeks ago. However, this game is in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers have won 20 straight regular season contests versus Cleveland. Jameis Winston (497 yards) and Russell Wilson (414 yards) were the top two passing leaders in Week 13.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 204-138 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 58-31 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says one team covers almost 60% of the time in an A-rated spread pick. Get the model’s coveted A-rated pick here.

Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 46.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

The Raiders’ eight-game losing streak is the longest active one in the NFL, however, they are coming off season-highs in both total yards (434) and passing yards (318) in a Black Friday loss to Kansas City. Tampa Bay is 3-1 both outright and against the spread versus teams below .500 this season.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, has an A-rated spread pick, where one team covers nearly 60% of the time, and an A-rated total pick, where one side hits in over 60% of simulations. Get the model’s coveted A-rated picks here.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 39.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

Trevor Lawrence (concussion) is in the protocol and is shaping up to be a game-time decision. Over the last 10 meetings between these teams in Tennessee, the Titans are 9-1 straight-up and are 6-3-1 against the spread. The Over is also 7-3 in those matchups.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 24-10 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, says the player with the best chance of scoring a touchdown in this game is not a running back, which could be beneficial with NFL prop bets. See who it is right here.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 44.5)

Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

Seattle has won six straight games versus Arizona, including a Week 12 contest, 16-6, in a game that had 10 sacks and just one offensive touchdown. Kyler Murray leads the league in QBR (75.1), while Geno Smith ranks 20th in QBR (55.0) and is second in interceptions (12).

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 204-138 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 58-31 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says five different players will have over 70 yards from scrimmage, which could come in handy with Fantasy and NFL prop picks. Get the NFL projections here.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (+4, 49.5)

Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

Matthew Stafford has been sacked a total of 13 times over his last two games versus the Bills. As for Josh Allen, he’s been sacked 13 times over the entire 2024 season and hasn’t been taken down in either of the last two weeks. The Bills are 6-1 against the spread during their current seven-game win streak.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says one side covers in well over 60% of simulations in an A-rated spread pick. Get the model’s coveted A-rated pick here.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 44)

Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

San Francisco will be without running backs Christian McCaffrey (knee) and Jordan Mason (ankle). The team is coming off back-to-back games with just 10 points, while it gave up five touchdowns in each of those outings. Chicago will play its first game under interim head coach Thomas Brown after losing its last six games under Matt Eberflus.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 24-10 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, projects one defense to score more Fantasy points than every non-quarterback in this game. See the NFL projections here.

Sunday Night Football: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 43)

Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC

Patrick Mahomes has a 13:3 TD:INT in the six games since Kansas City added DeAndre Hopkins, compared to a TD:INT of 6:8 in the six games before Hopkins’ arrival. The Chargers have the league’s No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 15.7 points per game and also have the fewest giveaways (six) in the 2024 NFL season.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, projects one team to be held under 75 rushing yards, and it projects one team to allow a touchdown more than its regular-season average. See the NFL projections here.

Monday, Dec. 9

Monday Night Football: Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (+5.5, 49.5)

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: ABC/ESPN

The Cowboys last played on Thanksgiving, and Dallas is 12-5 ATS with a rest advantage since Mike McCarthy’s first season in 2020, which is the second-best mark in the league. However, Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS with less rest than its opponent over this span, which is the best record in the NFL.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 204-138 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 58-31 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says one side of the total hits in nearly 70% of simulations. See which side of the total to back here.